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Monday February 23, 2015 - 12:19:54 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Greece sharpens its rhetoric ahead of providing details of its bailout extension plan


Mon, 23 Feb 2015 5:10 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Tentative deal reached between Greece and the Eurogroup late Friday; Greece must still specify reforms they will undertake in a letter; recent Greek rhetoric still sounds like negotiations on issues
- German IFO Business Climate Survey misses expectations but still improves for the 5th straight month

**Economic data***
- (SG) Singapore Jan CPI (miss); M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3%e
- (JP) Japan Jan Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.8% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.4%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Producer Confidence Index: 2.0 v 2.8 prior
- (DE) German Feb IFO Survey (miss); Business Climate: 106.8 v 107.7e; Current Assessment: 111.3 v 112.5e; Expectations Survey: 102.5 v 103.0e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,910, DAX +0.3% at 11,089, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,842, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,957, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 21,957, SMI +0.4% at 8,928, Athens Stock Exchange closed, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 2,103]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher as traders await details related to Greece's planned reforms; DAX hits fresh record high ahead of IFO data; Markets pare gains amid weaker German IFO; Greek equities closed due to Ash Monday; Holcim's Q4 profits above ests; HSBC adjusted FY profits above ests (reported pretax profit below), cut ROE target

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[CTS Eventim EVD.DE -8% (regulatory probe), Metro MEO.DE -2.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Consumer Staples [DIA DIA.ES +1.5% (buyback) ]
- Telecom [QSC QSC.DE -7% (reported FY14 net loss) ]
- Technology [Xing O1BC.DE +3% (FY profits rose) ]
- Industrials [PostNL PNL.NL +7% (dividend related commentary)]
- Energy [Areva AREVA.FR -1.5% (impairment loss) ]
- Financials [HSBC HSBA.UK -5% (revised ROE target)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +0.7%, Telecom +0.3%, Energy +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Financials +0.2%, Industrials +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%; Basic Materials -0.3%]

**Speakers**
- EU's Moscovici:
There is no plan "B" for Greece; only goal is to keep country in the Euro Zone
- Greece Govt Spokesman reiterated that the promised list of reforms to be sent later today and would include reforms against tax evasion and corruption. Discussing with EU members to ensure the list was accepted; reiterated sought a mutual beneficial solution but Greek 'red lines' still applied. To restore collective bargaining; will not cut pensions
- Poland Central Bank's Bratkowski stated that he saw room for cutting Base Rate by 100bps but doubted that central bank would cut by 50bps at the March policy meeting. He noted that a 50bps rate cut would be the right move after holding policy steady in Feb. Large rate differential between Europe and Poland was risky because it might draw capital inflows
- Poland Central Bank Rzonca noted that additional rate cuts risked slowing long-term growth. Setting borrowing too low encouraged excessive borrowing and increases risk of volatility. Polish mortgage loans growing 2-3x faster than disposable income and will affect growth when rates do eventually rise
- Poland Central Bank Bank's Winiecki stated that the benchmark rate was set for long term at 2.00%; reiterated further rate cut useless to spur economic growth, rate cuts may prove costly
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: Current level of interest rates was not acceptable; expected a rate cut when the central bank meets on Tuesday, Feb 24th
- Japan PM Adviser Hamada: BoJ could lower its inflation target to near 1% from 2% and extend timeframe to 3 years from 2 years.
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Lee: Deflation concerns for country are exaggerated
- Philippine Central Bank (BSP) gov Tetangco stated that it could maintain current policy stance for bulk of 2015 if current conditions remained the same. Any rate hike did not have to be in sync with the Fed. FX price action could influence policy but is not the primary driver
- Singapore Finance Min Tharman: FY15 Budget speech forecasted a deficit of S$6.7B (1.7% of GDP) citing result of investments and airport fund; Would not draw on past reserves to fund deficit. To raise income tax rates for 5% top earners in 2017 from 20% to 22%

**Currencies***
- Broad-based USD buying seen in session ahead of Feb Yellen bi-annual testimony
(Tues and Wed). The greenback gains against all major and commodity-related currency pairs.
- The EUR/USD slipped to test below the 1.1310 area after German IFO Business Climate Survey missed expectations. Greece rhetoric was trying to play down the appearance that its govt 'caved' in recent program extension talks
- The overall relief that Greece has a 4-month extension of its loan program has helped peripheral yields to move lower. Portuguese 10-year gov't yield at 2.10% and below the US counterpart for the first time since 2007

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece ruling Syriza party struggling to justify caving in to creditors' demands to some of the more left-leaning Greek lawmakers - NY Times; Report noting there is internal dissent within the party.
- (GR) German ruling CDU party official: German parliament will approve 4-month of aide if Greece "does its homework"

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Greece Syriza govt to present details of its plan for bailout extension
- (CO) Colombia Jan Retail Confidence: No est v 22.1 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 2.1 prior
- (IL) Israel Jan Leading "S": No est v 0.3% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Current Account Balance: No est v -0.2B prior
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.5B in 12-month Bubills
- 06:00 (UK) Feb CBI Industrial Reports Sales: 35e v 39 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 3-month bills
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2016, 2019, 2024 and 2042 bonds
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Feb Real Sector Confidence (Seasonally Adj): No est v 106.8 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA: No est v 103.2 prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Feb Capacity Utilization: No est v 73.70%
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming Bill auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +0.05e v -0.05 prior
- 08:30 (EU) EU's Moscovici in Brussels
- 08:45 (EU) IMF's Gaspar in Brussels
- 08:45 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) in London
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 5.9-7.1B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.25%

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 10:00 (US) Jan Existing Home Sales: 4.95Me v 5.04M prior
- 10:30 (US) Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -4.0e v -4.4 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $52B in 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 12:00 (BR) Brazil feb CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 44.4 prior
- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Dec Trade Balance: No est v $0.3B prior
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HKD600M in 15-Year Notes
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to Sell 40-Year Bonds
- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to Sell TWD 120 Bln 364-Day NCD



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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