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Wednesday February 25, 2015 - 11:46:17 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Central Bank speak remains on center stage


Wed, 25 Feb 2015 5:16 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Feb Preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI back in expansion territory: 50.1 v 49.5e
- Central Bank speak remain on center stage; Fed Chair Yellen to continue her testimony to Congress today (House); ECB's Draghi in EU Parliament on QE

**Economic data***
- (NP) Norway Q1 Consumer Confidence: 7.4 v 16.5e
- (CH) Swiss Jan UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.24 v 1.42 prior
- (FR) France Feb Consumer Confidence: 92 v 91e (highest since May 2012)
- (ES) Spain Jan PPI M/M: -0.5% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -3.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.7% v 3.7%e
- (UK) Jan BBA Loans for House Purchase (beat): 36.4K v 36.0Ke

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell new EUR-denominated July 2030 bond; order book over 15B with guidance seen at +100bps to mid-swaps
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency opened its book to sell $2.0B in Mar 2018 bonds; guidance set at +1bps
- (IN) India sold total INR123.9 vs. INR140B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 7.0B vs. 7.0B indicated 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.090% (record low) v 0.160% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.81x v 1.74x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%,
FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,930, DAX -0.1% at 11,193, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,876, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 11,031, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 22,034, SMI -0.6% at 8,930, Athens Stock Exchange -0.6%, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,117]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European markets lacked direction in early trade as dealers assess comments from Yellen; Greek equities open slightly higher following sharp gains on Tuesday, markets later pare gains; Lower oil prices weigh on energy companies; Earnings: Axa rises amid higher profits and dividend, Safran FY results above ests, Endesa beats estimates, Telefonica misses, Bouygues FY sales inline, Suez Environmental misses, Euronext FY profit +35% y/y, Weir Group declines amid cautious outlook, Petrofac beats ests, Maersk FY profits below ests, Maersk FY sales above ests; Japan's Nikkei declines for first time in 6 sessions

By Sector
- Industrials
[Vallourec VK.FR -5% (FY net loss), Weir Group WEIR.UK -6.5% (cautious outlook); Maersk MAERSKB.DK +6% (FY sales above ests, expected cash return)]
- Financials [Axa CS.FR +4% (raised dividend), Euronext ENX.FR +2% (FY profits +35% y/y)
- Utilities [Endesa ELE.ES +2% (FY profits above ests); Suez Environmental SEV.FR -1.5% (FY profits below ests)
- Telecom [Telefonica TEF.ES -1% (Q4 results below ests)
- Consumer Staples [WM Morrison MRW.UK +1% (new CEO)
- Healthcare [Fresenius FRE.DE +2% (raised dividend)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%, Energy -0.4%, Financials -0.3%, Telecom -0.1%, Industrials -0.3%; Utilities +1.4%, Technology +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

**Speakers**
- Greece Fin Min Varoufakis reiterated that he would cooperate with EU, ECB, IMF troika.
The list of reforms did not include wage cuts or VAT hikes and would amend property tax in 2015. Greatest task was to address tax evasion and corruption. He noted Greece would return to markets when country achieved investment, primary surplus and debt restructuring
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Feb minutes: Inflation remained low but showing signs of bottoming out
- Italy's Northern League leader Roberto Salvini: If I became premier, I would take Italy out of the eurozone
- Iran President Rouhani: Will continue path with P5+1 power in nuclear talks; will not accept threats or sanctions
- Saudi Oil Min Naimi: Global oil markets are 'calm now', demand was growing

**Currencies***
- The USD remains on soft footing following Fed chair Yellen testimony yesterday
. The greenback weakened as Fed hinted it won't hike interest rates before the middle of the year.
- The EUR/USD was inching towards the 1.14 area aided by the Eurogroup decision to extend Greek funding for the next 4 months providing time for a deeper review of the bailout agreement
- The GBP/USD was at 2-month highs just above the 1.55 handle.
- CAD maintained a firm tone as markets scaled back expectations of another interest rate cut in March following recent comments from the Bank of Canada Gov.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Patient stance means the Fed will not raise rates for at least the next few meetings; Will likely change forward guidance/patience language before raising rates
- (GR) IMF and ECB said to question the extent to which Greek list of reforms accepted by the Eurogroup adheres to the current program as promised by Greek govt
- (GR) German CDU hardliners want Germany to take a hard line on Greece; Party members Lauk and Steiger warn agaist allowing an extension without "effective terms"

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 0% 2020 BOBL
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell 2.875% Oct 2025 OT bonds

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 16.3% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 89.8 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in Jan 2020 OFZ bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Cameron question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 20th: No est v -13.2% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa National Budget
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 3.022T prior; M/M: No est v 2.0% prior; Private Banks Lending (BRL): No est v 1.402T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: 6.6%e v 6.5% prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Tax Collections (BRL): 124.5Be v 114.8B prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Feb CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 44.4 prior
- 09:00 (EU) EU Parliament debates recent Leader Summit outcome
- 10:00 (US) Jan New Home Sales: 470Ke v 481K prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen testifies in House
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q4 Current Account Balance: -$7.0Be v -$2.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi testifies to EU Parliament in Brussels
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 12:00 (DE) German Foreign Min Steinmeier speech
- 12:00 (FR) France Jan Net Change in Jobseekers: +8.0Ke v +8.1K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.503Me v 3.496M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Jan Trade Balance (NZD: -158Me v -159M prior
- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.8%e v 3.8% prior
- 20:30 (JP) BOJ's Ishida in Yokohama
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 2-Year Bonds



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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