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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Optimism prevails on Greece as EU Leaders conclude Summit
Fri, 20 Mar 2015 5:46 AM EST
***Notes/Observations***
- Greece govt expresses optimism at current EU Leader Summit; however Germany
continues to dampen hopes of a quick deal and wants Greece to speed up its
efforts to make progress on the February 20 agreement bailout extension
**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany Feb PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.0%e
- (JP) Japan Feb Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -1.4% v -0.7% prior (11th
straight month of declines)
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders (miss); Y/Y: -2.7% v 3.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Current Account (Seasonally Adj): €29.4B v €22.5B prior;
Current Account NSA (Unadj): €8.2B v €35.2B prior
- (UK) Feb Public Finances (PSNCR): +£0.0B v -£19.3B prior; Public Sector Net
Borrowing: +£6.2B v +£7.7Be
Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2046 and 2050 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,967, DAX +0.6% at 11,965,
CAC-40 +0.2% at 5,047, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 11,134, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 11,876, SMI +0.2%
at 9,342, Athens Stock Exchange +2.8%, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 2,087]
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open higher as Holcim
and Lafarge confirm revised merger terms; Concerns related to Greece continue
to linger; Zodiac warns on outlook
By Sector:
- Basic Materials/Resources [Holcim HOLN.CH +1%, Lafarge LG.FR +2.5%
(agreement related to revised merger terms)]
- Industrials [Pirelli PC.IT +4%
(M&A speculation); Zodiac ZC.UK -10% (profit warning)
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +8%
(collaboration agreement with Sanofi)]
- Energy [Tullow Oil TLW.UK
+2.5% (financing agreement)]
- Consumer Staples [Suedzucker
SZU.DE -5% (concerns related to possible sugar cartel fine)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +0.4%,
Utilities +0.4%, Technology +0.4%, Financials +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%,
Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.3%; Telecom -0.2%, Industrials
-0.1%]
**Speakers**
- Greece Finance Ministry: Technical teams of experts are preparing
detailed list of reforms for euro zone
- Germany Fin Min Schaeuble said
to expect Greece to exit euro single currency but Chancellor seeks to keep the
country as a member for political reasons
- German Finance Ministry spokesperson:
No comment on German press article regarding Grexit
- EU Leaders commented ahead of the final day of the Summit
- EU Juncker: Hopeful on Greece
following side meeting with PM Tsipras; agreed to speed up the process
- German Vice Chancellor/Econ Min
Gabriel: Hopeful on Greece following high-level sideling meeting at Summit
- OECD's Gurria stated that he
was not concerned about China's economy slowing down and believed European
recovery was poised to accelerate
- China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is not a rival to ADB or World Bank
- Thailand Central Bank cut its 2015
GDP growth and inflation forecasts. GDP cut from 4.0% to 3.8% with CPI
forecast cut from 1.2% to 0.2%. It did not see deflation on the horizon
- Donetsk separatist rebels: See very high risk of escalation in Ukraine
**Currencies***
- A quiet economic calendar provided the basis for limited FX price action in
Europe. The USD still trying to recover from the wild swings following the
mid-week FOMC statement and press conference. EUR/USD upper end of the 1.06
area and USD/JPY steady at 120.80
**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) EU statement: Greek authorities will have the ownership of the reforms
and will present a full list of specific reforms in the next days; The
Eurogroup stands ready to reconvene as soon as possible
- (GR) German chancellor Merkel: Tsipras gave assurances he plans to implement
Feb 20th decision; No payout from Greek bailout funds, ECB profits before
review concluded.
**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time
(Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Portugal Sovereign Debt Rating Published by S&P (Currently BB with
stable outlook)
- (FI) Finland Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch (currently AAA, stable)
- (TR) Turkey Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (HU) Hungary Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (NG) Nigeria Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (CY) Cyprus Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's (currently B3 with
stable outlook)
- Croatia Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Jan Current Account Balance: No est v €5.2B prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announces upcoming Bill/Oat auctions
- 07:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £4.0B
in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (1.0B, 1.5B and 1.5B respectively)
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb PPI M/M: No est v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.1% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Mar 13th: No est v $337.8B prior
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y:
7.9%e v 7.4% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb CPI M/M: +0.7%e
v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.0% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 124.3
prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.6%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2%
prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada CPI (Seasonally Adj) M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; CPI Core
(Seasonally Adj) M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Retail Sales M/M: -0.8%e v -2.0% prior; Retail Sales Ex
Auto M/M: -0.4%e v -2.3% prior
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -5 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Retail Sales M/M: +0.7%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v
2.4% prior
- 10:20 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Monetary Policy in Athens, Georgia
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington
- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count w/e Mar 20th
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 Current Account Balance: -$1.0Be v -$0.7B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 GDP Y/Y: +0.3%e v -0.8% prior; Full Year 2014 GDP: No
est v 3.0% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Trade Balance: -$2.0Be v -$1.5B prior; Total Imports:
$5.3Be v $5.5B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave
Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 4.50%
- (CO) Colombia Feb Retail Confidence: No est v 22.7 prior; Industrial
Confidence: No est v 0.8 prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
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