Sunday March 22, 2015 - 13:46:36 GMT
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Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading
ECB Policy is locked in for at least a year. EUR negative
Fed policy has unexpectedly turned more dovish. This calls into question the universal bull USD scenario. USD less positiveALL WEEK
ECB Quantitative Ease (QE) is the dominant driver of fund flows.
Falling 2-yr German schatz driving EURUSD lower.
Fed policy is now data-dependent (inflation). Currently expansive.
U.S. Existing Homes Sales may not be a major market mover but the Fed mentioned lackluster housing so it might be worth a watch since it is the most important housing statistic.
All day Tuesday flash PMI data will be released. I find them to be a useful representation of current economic conditions but not reliable predictors. One nice thing about them is that the data are presumably comparable and thus can be looked at together. Highlights will be EZ and U.S. (mfg) data
EZ, GE and FR flash Mfg PMIs
EZ, GE and FR flash Service PMIs
For Comparison: U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash estimate due)
The Bank of England targets inflation officially, but also (unofficially) targets the economy, National Inflation figures due.
The German IFO Survey outweighs the PMI data in significance and can impact the EUR. Watch it
With the Bank of England targeting the economy, Retail Sales data might be turning softer and with other data push later the timing of an expected normalization of police. Data seen better.
We do not expect anything new from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday, but she will have an opportunity, if she feels she needs it, to clarify market perceptions about policy. I do not expect anything new.
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