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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: UK Feb CPI YoY hits fresh record low; German PMI data beats expectations


Tue, 24 Mar 2015 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI hit 10-month low: (50.4 v 52.0e)
- China Mar HSBC Manufacturing PMI hits 11-month low (49.2 v 50.4e) with Employment sub-index at a 6-year low
- German Chancellor Merkel and Greek PM Tsipras pledged to work together to help resolve Greece's financing crisis but appeared to make little progress on substance
- Major European Manufacturing PMI data mixed; Germany and Euro Zone beat expectations and remain in expansion territory while France misses and stays in contraction

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Small Business Confidence (beats): 49.8 v 48.0e (Highest since March 2014)
- (FI) Finland Feb Unemployment Rate (miss): 10.1% v 9.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar Business Confidence: 11.6 v 12.2 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 3.3 v 3.3 prior; Composite: 10.0 v 10.4 prior
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (miss): 48.2 v 48.5e; Services PMI (beat): 52.8 v 52.5e
- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (beats): 52.4 v 51.5e; Services PMI (beats): 55.3 v 55.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (beat): 51.9 v 51.5e; Services PMI: 54.3 v 53.9e
- (PL) Poland Feb Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.0%e
- (UK) Feb CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: (miss) 0.0% (record low) v 0.1%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (UK) Feb RPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e; RPI Ex Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (UK) Feb PPI Input M/M: 0.2% v 1.6%e; Y/Y: -13.5% v -12.3%e
- (UK) Feb PPI Output M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.0%e
- (UK) Feb PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (UK) Jan ONS House Price Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.9%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell new 15-year I/L Bond via syndicate; guidance seen +130bps to Spanish Treasuries
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) opened its book to sell 7.0B indicated in 0.25% 2025 DSL Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 7,041, DAX +0.2% at 11,916, CAC-40 +0.2% at 5,064, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 11,467, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 23,141, SMI flat at 9,362, Athens Stock Exchange +1%, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 2,098]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following Monday's losses, amid continued weakness in peripheral bonds; DAX pares losses after PMI data, but upside capped amid rise in Euro (IFO data on Wed); US and UK CPI in focus; Retailer H&M Q1 profits above ests amid gross margin expansion

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Woseley WOS.UK -2.5% (H1 profits declined); 888 Holdings 888.UK +3% (special dividend), H&M HMB.SE +1% (Q1 profits above ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Utilities -0.5%, Financials -0.2%, Energy -0.2%; Consumer Cyclical +1%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Technology +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Industrials +0.3%, Telecom flat ]

**Speakers**
- Greece govt spokesperson: To present reform package to Eurogroup by Monday, Mar 30th at the latest

- EU Working Group to hold call on Greece on Wed, March 25th
- Norway PM Solberg stated tha its domestic housing market was not the big threat as some believe
- Fitch: Any potential cut in South Africa's sovereign rating would be by one notch (**Reminder: On Dec 12th Fitch affirmed South Africa sovereign rating at BBB; outlook Negative)
- BoJ Gov Kuroda: Not appropriate to discuss concrete exit strategy now; exit could change depending on markets and economy
- Japan Fin Min Aso reiterated govt view that planned implementation of 2nd phase of sales tax hike will not be delayed unless by extraordinary circumstance
- Philippine Central Bank (BSP) gov Tetangco: To continue using mix of tools to address risks and still had room to make policy adjustments

**Currencies***
- The USD maintained a soft tone as dealers took note of recent 'dovish' Fed talk
. The conclusion at this time is that monetary policy adjustment would be gradual, if not distant
- EUR/USD probed back towards the 1.10 neighborhood aided by mostly improving PMI data in Europe (particular German reading)
- USD/CHF at 3-week low testing 0.9625

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) German Chancellor Merkel noted that discussions with Greek PM centered around the Euro, as well as bilateral issues. She noted that Germany could not offer any liquidity by itself, liquidity is to be provided by the entirety of the Eurogroup
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC voter): Mid-year to be time to start rate hike debate; A rise in US Dollar has a large effect on forecasts, should hike rate this year despite strong Dollar
- (US) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer: Fed likely to raise rates before year end and could be driven by a multiple of factors

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) Iran nuclear talks continue in Lausanne
- (NG) Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rate unchanged at 13.00%
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves in Parliament
- 06:00 (US) Fed's Bullard (moderate, non voter) in London
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:15 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 06:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2025 Bonds
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:45 (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves in Parliament
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb PPI M/M: No est v -3.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI M/M: +0.2%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Gov Tombini in Senate
- 09:00 (US) Jan FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior
- 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Rate (NBH) Interest Rate Decision
: Expected to cut Base Rate by 20bps to 1.90%
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Current Account Balance: -$7.5Be v -$10.7B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $3.2Be v $4.0B prior
- 09:45 (US) Mar Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.6e v 55.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb New Home Sales: 464Ke v 481K prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 3e v 0 prior

- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Business Confidence: -7.5e v -8.3 prior
- 10:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy post rate decision statement
- 10:15 (UK) Chancelor Osborne in Parliament on budget
- 10:30 (FR) ECB's Noyer (France)
- 11:00 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Parliament
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2035 and 2055 Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $26B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.247T prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Feb Trade Balance (NZD): 325Me v 56M prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prelim
- 20:30 (AU) RBA's Financial Stability Review
- 23:00 (CN) China to sell 3-Year Bonds
- 23:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB14B in 2025 Bonds



 

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