Sunday March 29, 2015 - 13:32:19 GMT
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Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for TradingGlobal-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading
ECB Policy is locked in for at least a year. EUR negative
Fed policy signals have turned mixed. In sum, the Fed is preparing the markets for an slight increase in the Fed Funds target, but is assuring markets that an policy tightening will be extremely gradual. USD positiveALL WEEK
ECB Quantitative Ease (QE) is the dominant driver of fund flows.
Falling 2-yr German schatz driving EURUSD lower.
Fed policy is now data-dependent (inflation). Currently expansive.
Monday 30 March
The Fed targets the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator at 2% in the medium term. This is the central bak's primary inflation target.
Tuesday 31 March
The initial major piece of news next week is the Eurozone flash inflation data for March released on Tuesday. The flash estimate is not revised much when the final data are released. ECB monetary policy is currently locked in for another year or so. Global-VIew EZ and German Charts
EZ flash HICP (CPI) higher than seen. Core steady. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.
Wednesday 1 April
Early Wednesday sees the latest Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey. This is a closely-followed Japanese economic indicator.
Over the day Wednesday sees a slew of final Manufacturing PMIs. I find them to be a useful representation of current economic conditions but not reliable predictors. Data are presumably comparable between economies and thus can be looked at together.
China Manufacturing PMIs
EZ, GE and FR flash Manufacturing PMIs
Early in N.Y. Wednesday, the ADP private Employment estimate is used as a forecast of March Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
For Comparison with the Eurozone, U.S. Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs
Friday 2 April
Friday is a holiday in most of Europe, Canada and elsewhere. It is a shortened session in the U.S. due to the release of U.S. Februsry employment data.
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