User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 1, 2005 - 21:27:56 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: A Possible Early End to Rate Hikes Sends Dollar Tumbling

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-01-05

· A Possible Early End to Rate Hikes Sends Dollar Tumbling
· Will Higher Oil Prices Tempt Europeans to Look For Euro-Denominated Oil?
· Yen Rallies on Growing Demand for Japanese Equities

US Dollar

The US dollar sold off strongly today as the market begins to consider the possibility that the Fed may not even raise rates to 4%. Greenspan spoke to the President in Washington about the potential economic impact of Hurricane Katrina. The Fed Chairman will have to walk a fine line between keeping growth steady while battling inflation pressure. Although Katrina would be a good reason to halt rate hikes, we suspect that Greenspan will stick to his view that the rise in energy prices is temporary and for the time being, go ahead with a quarter point rate hike later this month. The November decision on the other hand remains more uncertain. The outlook for the dollar at this point is not good. There are gas stations running out of gas down south while others have hiked prices to as high as $6 a gallon. As of 1pm EST, our FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index remained in net short territory for the EURUSD and net long territory for USDCHF – supporting the case for a further rally in the EURUSD (the SSI is a contrarian indicator). The data that was released this morning was very disappointing, with the ISM survey printing at 53.6 versus expectations of 57.0. Construction spending was flat compared to the market’s forecast for 0.5% growth. Personal spending and income data indicated that incomes continue to grow at a slower pace than spending. Although the market will be turning its attention to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, we doubt that a good number could do much to help the dollar since the following month’s NFP report could be very bad. Jobless claims have not really flowed in yet from Katrina because most people are still focused on basic survival, but once everything clears up over the next few weeks and unemployment offices reopen, we expect jobless claims to explode as people rush to apply for benefits. Generally speaking, with hurricanes, we usually see a sharp drop off in payrolls the month of the hurricane with a strong recovery over the next few months. However the dollar's sell-off today has been particularly strong, so we would not be surprised to see a bit of consolidation, but unless the government finds a resolution to this oil shock, traders coming back from their summer or Labor Day holidays could send the dollar even lower.

Euro

As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged today at 2%. With oil prices soaring, the central bank has become increasingly concerned with inflation. However even if they are concerned and seem to be sending out hawkish comments, we doubt that the central bank would really consider raising interest rates, especially since today’s reports indicate that the manufacturing sector is really suffering from the higher price of oil. The manufacturing PMI survey for Germany dipped back into contractionary territory while Italy’s manufacturing sector faced stagnant growth. The only shining light was in France, which saw a modest expansion in its own manufacturing sector. The continual rise in oil prices, which is traditionally priced in dollars, may make euro-denominated oil even more attractive for European importers who are looking any edge in cutting costs. At bare minimum oil priced in euros would cut out the conversion cost, which can be considered a hidden tax. This could be a big opportunity for Iran, who plans on selling oil quoted in Euros next March.

British Pound

Rocketing higher, the British pound soared approximately 360 pips during the session with traders bidding the Queen’s currency on inflation fears. Disregarding the fact that housing valuations growth is the slowest in nine years, declining 0.2 percent in the month of August, traders saw potential in up ticks in manufacturing. Released by the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply, the index rose to a reading of 50.1, capping four straight months of contraction in the sector. Last month’s was slightly below at a reading of 49.5. With that said, speculation has now risen that the Bank of England will maintain their tone and not succumb to recent pressure for additional interest rate cuts. Subsequently, the release showed that consumer goods production drove up the overall figure with the new orders component rising sharply over the previous number. Confirming this notion was a radio interview held before the release where BOE Governor Mervyn King decided to highlight optimism in the industry commenting that “good manufacturing firms are prospering” and that policy officials currently see “a growing world economy that is helping firms that are exporting.” Subsequently, the release showed that consumer goods production drove up the overall figure with the new orders component rising sharply over the previous number. With that said, market players are now growing ever confident that interest rates will remain at the 4.50 percent with, what seems to be, a pickup in productivity. For now, only time will tell.

Japanese Yen

With no economic data, traders bid the Japanese currency higher on growing interest in Japanese equities and talk of more Chinese revaluation in the pipeline. In this case, attention once again turned to foreign interest in domestic equities. According to a report released by the Ministry of Finance, foreign buying in Japanese stocks rose to 383 billion yen for the previous week. This now brings the monthly interest to more than 1 trillion yen. With expectations that the world’s second largest economy will soon prosper, foreign investors are trying to be beat the crowd. However, domestic investors still remain net sellers of domestic equities and may ultimately turn their sites home once considerable interest prompts such a move. As a result, both Nikkei and Topix benchmarks hit fresh four-year highs at the close. Ultimately beneficial for the economy, foreign interest may be bent on future expectations as we close in on the September 11 elections. This is a considerable implication as a hung election or subsequent situation may leave Japanese investments out in the open, especially the underlying spot currency. Subsequently, market participants will await next week’s data for further direction from here when both consumer confidence and capital investment will play the spotlight. Our readers will remember that capital expenditures contributed substantively to the rise out of recession we saw late last year. This time around, although not as popular as household spending, the figure will still be scrutinized.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105