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Monday April 13, 2015 - 05:57:08 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: China trade figures disappoint with lowest surplus in over a year - Source TradeTheNews.com

CN) CHINA MAR TRADE BALANCE: $3.1B V $40.1BE (lowest since Feb 2014) - (JP) JAPAN MAR MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 3.6% (3-month high) V 3.6%E; M3 Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.0%E - (JP) JAPAN MAR CGPI (PPI) M/M: +0.3% (8-month high) V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.7% (3-month high) V 0.4%E - (JP) JAPAN FEB MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -0.4% (2nd straight decline) V -2.2%E; Y/Y: 5.9% V 4.3%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR TOTAL CARD SPENDING M/M: 1.3% V 0.4% PRIOR; RETAIL SPENDING M/M: 0.8% V 0.8%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.4% V 2.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: -17.1% V -17.8% PRIOR; EXPORT PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.5% PRIOR; M/M: -6.8% V -8.1% PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.3%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 2,094***Commodities/Fixed Income***- Jun gold +0.1% at $1,205/oz, May crude oil +0.4% at $51.83/brl, May copper +0.3% at $2.742/lb- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,084 tonnes from 10,010 tonnes prior; first rise since Mar 8th - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.7 tonnes to 734.3 tonnes - (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr bond, avg yield 1.825% - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 70B in JGBs with maturity less than 1-yr, 400B in 5-10yr JGBs ***Market Focal Points/FX***- Last week, a Chinese press report citing a Customs official foreshadowed soft trade activity by calling for additional policy support to revive the sector, and today's official trade data justified the pessimism. Trade surplus was the lowest in over a year, as both exports and imports were down by double digits at -15.0% v +9.0%e and -12.7% v -10.0%e respectively. Soft external demand was visible in all regions, with shipments to US falling 8%, EU by 19%, and Japan by 25%. Imports decline was also notable considering sequential improvement in iron ore and crude oil shipments. After the release, China customs noted that while Q1 disappointment was attributed to seasonality around the Lunar New Year, Q2 will see some improvement despite ongoing uncertainty. Customs bureau added imports drop was due to lower commodity prices, and the govt will work to meet broader 2015 targets. AUD/USD fell over 60pips on the China trade data release, testing below $0.76 level. Shanghai Composite preserved its gains however as markets viewed the shortfall within the context of supporting continued PBoC easing trend.- With China Q1 GDP on tap for release later this week, slowing demand for basic materials on the mainland continues to reverberate in Australia. Treasurer Hockey warned that iron ore prices are now estimated as low as $35/ton, resulting in annual loss of as much as A$6.25B relative to prior forecasts. Recall last week Atlas Iron announced its iron ore operation is no longer viable. Over the weekend, Fortescue said it would maintain production at 165M tons per year, despite a controversial call by its chairman to curb output to prop up prices. Note that Citigroup and UBS cut their iron ore targets to $48 and $45 respectively.- After last week's outsized gains, the Hang Seng has taken a back seat to another rally in Shanghai despite reports that the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect quota may expand to CNY40B for southbound and CNY20B for northbound flows. While the pipeline for investment funds expands, a separate Chinese press report citing a member of the National People's Congress indicated Beijing is looking to impose a limit on the number of mainland Chinese visitors to Hong Kong. - Outside of China trade, economic data was heavily concentrated around Japan, where money supply data met consensus, machine order decline was smaller than expected, and corporate goods inflation was higher than estimated. Despite the more upbeat results, BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated core CPI is expected to stay around zero for time being due to energy prices, pledging to maintain QQE for as long as needed to stably hit 2% inflation. BOJ also released its minutes from the mid-March meeting where it issued a familiar assessment calling for economy to continue moderate recovery as inflation expectations rise from a longer-term perspective. USD/JPY opened a touch lower, but subsequently rose about 30pips toward 120.50.***Equities***US equities / ADRs:- WMT: Walton family intends to sell shares from time to time to offset increases in ownership from company share buyback- NFLX: Seeks shareholder approval to increase share authorization to 5 billion (from 170M currently) to facilitate dividends, financing and deal making - filing for annual meeting to be held June 9thNotable movers by sector:- Consumer Discretionary: China Southern 600029.CN +0.7% (Q1 guidance)- Financials: CITIC Securities 6030.HK +0.9%, Haitong Securities 6837.HK +0.6% (China relaxes rule on brokerage accounts per investor); China Merchants Bank 3968.HK +17.4% (plans private placement; to launch employee incentive program); Galaxy Securities 6881.HK +4.3% (Mar op results); T&D Holdings 8795.JP -3.6% (FY14/15 results)- Materials: Sirius Resources SIR.AU +5.6% (issues exploration update)- Technology: Mesoblast MSB.AU +23.4% (Celgene to acquire shares); Disco Corp 6146.JP +3.2% (press speculation on FY14/15 results)- Healthcare: Tsumura & Co 4540.JP -1.5% (press speculation on FY14/15 results) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
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Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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