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TradeTheNews.com US Mid-Session Update: European Bond Markets See Major Hiccup


Thu, 07 May 2015 11:16 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (MY) Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) leaves Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.25%, as expected
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank leaves both Repurchase Rate and EUR/CZK floor unchanged at 0.05% and 'around 27.00' respectively, as expected
- (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Electricity Consumption Y/Y: +1.5% v -0.8% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: -0.2% v -2.1% prior
- (US) Apr Challenger Job Cuts: +61.6K v +36.6K prior; Y/Y: +52.8% v 6.4% prior
- (CL) Chile Apr Trade Balance: $1.2B v $1.2Be
- (BR) Brazil Mar National Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.9%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 265K v 278Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.228M v 2.27Me
- (CA) Canada Mar Building Permits M/M: 11.6% v 2.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Apr CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Vehicle Production: 217K v 253.6K prior; Vehicle Sales: 219K v 234.6K prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +76 bcf vs. +73 to +77 bcf expected range

Yesterday's remarks by Fed Chair Yellen that equity market valuations are "quite high" continues to echo through markets, as analysts compare it to her call on biotech valuations a year ago as well as Alan Greenspan's notorious "irrational exuberance" remarks. Equities have been choppy, but the slide seen over the last three sessions is not resuming for now. As of writing, the DJIA, S&P500 and the Nasdaq are flat on the session.

European bond yields had a serious hiccup earlier today, with the yield on the German 10-year Bund surging by as much as 21 bps to 0.80% (its highest level since last November) before easing back below 0.60%. Interestingly, peripheral yields saw weaker gains and have come in significantly as buyers step in. There was no apparent proximate cause for the spike, besides a general lack of liquidity. Some analysts highlighted Poland cancelling a t-bill sale (citing higher yields). The euro has given up gains, sinking from 1.1390 as low as 1.1240 after the US cash open.

After rising above $62 for the first time in months yesterday, WTI is back below $60 on a confluence of factors. In Yemen, the Saudis said they would consider a five-day bombing pause for humanitarian reasons. Meanwhile, there was a report circulating that Iranian oil production capacity was around 3.96M bpd in 2016, with jitters about just how much of that would be showing up on global markets if a nuclear deal unlocked sanctions. Brent dropped nearly 3% to $66.

Shares of ecommerce giant Alibaba surged more than 11% in the premarket and are up 7.7% as of writing following a very good earnings report. Earnings were just in line, but revenue rose nearly 50%, beating expectations. Buyer and sales metrics were very strong, and the firm replaced its CEO. In other earnings, Metlife and Prudential are both up slightly on firm first quarter results. Green Mountain is down 9% after missing top- and bottom-line expectations and cutting its FY forecast. Whole Foods said it would launch a new "value-oriented" chain, upsetting some investors. WFM is off 11%.

Lumber Liquidators suspended sales of Chinese laminate flooring, bowing to accusations that the products had dangerous levels of formaldehyde. The firm insisted that while 97% of 26,000 indoor air quality tests with kits provided by the company came back clear, it would suspend sales until a special committee looking into all allegations wrapped up it work. Shares of LL had dropped more than 5% on April 29th after the company disclosed the DoJ was seeking criminal charges related to the case, but today LL is up more than 4% after it did the right thing.

***Looking Ahead***
- (MX) Mexico Apr Vehicle Production: No est v 299.8K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 104.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 261.3K prior
- 15:00 (US) Mar Consumer Credit: $15.8Be v $15.5B prior
- 18:00 (UK) Polls close in UK general election
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) April 7-8 meeting minutes
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP)



 

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