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Monday September 5, 2005 - 12:12:06 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-09-05 ..... 1204 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7676/81...Trendline Resistance overhead
R: 0.7698-0.7709 / 0.7736 / 0.7780
S: 0.7666-46 / 0.7623-0.7600 / 0.7584-66
Currently the pair is trading below a crucial resistance at 0.7700, but also finds strong support at 0.7664-50 for today. While the support holds there could be an attempt to rise above 0.7700. While the resistance at 0.7700 holds, the pair might be pressured on the down side. A break below the said support may see it fall to 0.7610 and below.

Euro @ 1.2538/41....Resistance intact so far
R: 1.2573-92 / 1.2609-14-29 / 1.2638-53
S: 1.2544-23 / 1.2508 / 1.2476-58
The Euro has not attempted to move above 1.2600 so far today. In case Resistances between 1.2609 and 1.2638 are broken, then there is reasonable chance of a further rise towards 1.28-29 in the coming weeks. But, failure to rise past 1.2638 could bring the Euro down towards 1.2443.

$-Yen @ 108.97/109.01....Bearish now?
R: 109.38 / 109.50-70 / 109.81-110.05
S: 108.77-72 / 108.23 / 108.04
Dollar has fallen below the crucial support (now Resistance) at 109.19. It has seen a Low near 108.77, but has not broken the statistically projected Max Low at 108.72 as yet. A break of Support at 108.72 would probably confirm a fall towards 108.50 enroute to 108.00 and maybe even 107.50. BUT, if the market remains above 108.72 AND climbs above 109.19, it may indicate a bottom for the Dollar and a reaffirmation of the 109-112 range trade view.

Our Longs at 109.37 and 109.29 have been stopped out at 108.90. Watching as of now. There can be fireworks early tomorrow morning.

Euro-Yen @ 136.62/67.....Bearish now?
R: 137.09 / 137.33-34 / 137.70
S: 136.57 / 136.32 / 136.18-07 / 135.96-87
The Cross has been pulled down by Dollar-Yen today. Our Long at 137.38 has been stopped out at 136.93. Support at 137.07 mentioned in the morning has been broken. There is a chance of a further fall towards 136.00 and even 135.00 over the course of the week.

There's immediate Support at 136.55 and then Trend Support at 136.32 on the 4-hour chart before that, though.

Sell EUR 20K at 136.93, SL 137.19, TP open.

$-Swiss @ 1.2301/06.....Watching Resistance at 1.2307
R: 1.2289-1.2307 / 1.2351 / 1.2372-94
S: 1.2269 / 1.2238 / 1.2207
The Dollar has continued to be well supported above 1.2228 through the day and may be attempting to break through the 1.2300-10 Resistance mentioned in the morning. If the Resistance does break, we may well see a rise towards 1.2350 or even higher. But, in case it remains below 1.2307, the market might continue to consolidate between 1.2307-1.2228 with a bearish bias.

Cable @ 1.8480/85....Resistance at 1.8532
R: 1.8530-32 / 1.8576 / 1.8613
S: 1.8440 / 1.8413-04 / 1.8340
The Cable has traded quietly so far today, well below the important Resistance at 1.8530-32. A break thereof is needed to trigger the next leg of the rise towards 1.88-89. But, failure to rise past 1.8532 could lead to a dip towards important Support at 1.8413-04. NOTE, even on the upside, 1.8576 is the 200-day MA on the Daily and might not be easy to break on the first attempt.

Happy Trading!


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