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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: EU officials stress need to see real progress being made on Greece at today's Eurogroup meeting

Mon, 11 May 2015 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China PBoC cuts its key 1-year rates for third time in six months over growth and inflation concerns
- Eurogroup meets on Greece today; no agreement seen on Greece but stresses progress needs to be seen
- IMF said to be making contingency plan for possible Greek default

**Economic data***
- (SE) Sweden Apr PES Unemployment Rate (beat): 3.8% v 3.9%e
- (DK) Denmark Mar Current Account Balance (DKK): 2.9B v 1.8Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 8.5B v 7.0Be
- (DK) Denmark Mar CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.4% v +1.7% prior; Y/Y: +1.6% v -0.2% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -2.1% v -3.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI Underlying M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e
- (GR) Greece Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.0% v 1.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (DK) Denmark rejected all bids in auction to sell 3-month Bills (1st time in 4 auctions)
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR11.8T vs. IDR Target in 3-month, 1-year, 10-year and 20-year bonds
- (NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B vs. NOK4.0B indicated in 10-month Bills; Yield: 0.89% v 0.89% prior, bid-to-cover: 2.32x v 2.93x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -1%, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 7,068, DAX -0.5% at 11,647, CAC-40 -1.4% at 5,017, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 11,401, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 23,188, SMI -0.3% at 9,070, Athens Stock Exchange -3%,S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,107]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mixed following sharp gains seen on Friday, amid rise in bond yields and steeper curves; Greek banks open sharply lower ahead of eurogroup meeting; CAC-40 weighed down by Airbus; Shanghai Composite rallies 3% on PBOC rate cut; Supermarkets Delhaize and Ahold rise on merger speculation; Platinum miner Lonmin to cut 3,500 jobs; Event risks for the week include Italian bank earnings, Greek talks, German GDP, BoE inflation report and US retail sales

By Sector
- Industrials [Airbus AIR.FR -4% (concerns related to A400M crash); GEA Group G1A.DE +1% (raised outlook)
- Financials [Talanx TLX.DE +2.5% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Industrials -1.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1.3%, Consumer Cyclical -1%, Financials -0.9%, Telecom -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.6%, Energy -0.4%, Utilities -0.3%; Technology +0.1%]

**Speakers**
- EU said to be concerned over Greece's ability to pay IMF on Tuesday (**Note: Greece has a €772M payment due to the IMF on May11-12th and a €1.4B bill redemption on May 15th)
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) reiterated view that ECB could be lender of last resort for banks but not countries . He reiterated discussion with Greece must bring results but would be premature to comment on today's Greek talks
- France Fin Min Sapin: Today Eurogroup meeting must show there has been progress on Greece; unlikely of any decisive outcome and that it could take 'days to weeks' needed for Greece agreement
- IMF's Ilyina: Poland Central Bank clearly has room to lower interest rates
- South Korea Fin Min Choi: Economic uncertainty is increasing
- China FX Regulator SAFE Annual Report expected stronger US dollar and possible US interest rate rise in H2 of 2015 . Expected current account surplus to continue in 2015 and would keep diversifying fx reserve investments in 2015.

**Currencies***
- EUR/USD remained locked within recent weekly trading ranges ahead of a Eurogroup meeting on Greece later today. Renewed concern over Greece's future in the Eurozone remained a headwind for the Euro currency. No agreement is seen on Greece at this time but EU members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process.
- The NOK currency (Krone) was softer as tepid April CPI data left the door open for a Norges rate cut in June
- NZD/USD currency pair was softer in Asia trading today as more analysts joined the bandwagon of looming rate cuts to come out of the RBNZ.
- Bond yields in Europe resume their uptrend. German 10-year bund was back above 0.61% (higher by 7bps) while both Spain and Italy 10-year bonds were higher by almost 10bps

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece Dep Foreign Min Tsakalotos (debt negotiation team): Reiterates view that Greece is very close to a deal with creditors
- (GR) IMF said to be working on contingency plan for possible Greek. In touch with national authorities in southeastern Europe for possible Greek default. Be preparing for potential default to agree on continued aid for Greece.
- (DE) Germany's euroskeptic AfD party said to have gained 5% of the vote in Bremen; On track to win seats in a fifth consecutive state parliament. Press reports also noted that Chancellor Merkel was under rising pressure from within her party to give up on Greece as euro would be strengthened if Greece exited
- (PL) Poland President Komorowski to face conservative candidate Duda in a run-off on May 24th

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) G-7 Energy Ministers begin 2-day meeting in Hamburg
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in 6-month Bubills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Trade Balance: No est v -€0.5B prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2020 and 2025 bonds
- 06:30 (EU) NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg press conference
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and £375B respectively
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €5.0-6.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) meet in Brussels
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month
- 13:00 (EU) EU's De Kerchove speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 16:00 (US) Crop Progress Report
- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Apr ANZ Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v -0.4% prior
- 19:01 (UK) Apr BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: 0.6%e v 3.2% prior
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Mar Exports: No est v $4.5B prior; Y/Y: -3.9%e v -3.1% prior
- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bill
- 23:45 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year Bonds

 

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