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TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: BOJ upgrades economic assessment with a boost from housing and consumption - Source TradeTheNews.com

(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: MAINTAINS PACE OF MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF ¥80T (AS EXPECTED); Raises overall economic assessment for the first time in nearly two years (as speculated) - (CN) CHINA APR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.1% v 0.5% prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 123.9 V 128.8 PRIOR; M/M: -3.8% V 3.4% PRIOR - (US) NORTH AMERICA APR SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.04 V 1.10 PRIOR (4TH STRAIGHT MONTH ABOVE PARITY) ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 2,129***Commodities/Fixed Income***- Jun gold +0.2% at $1,206/oz, Jul crude oil -0.2% at $60.62/brl, Jul copper -0.2% at $2.84/lb- (CN) China MOF sells 50-yr bond, avg 3.99% yield - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 3.25% 2018 Bonds; avg yield: 2.1082%; bid-to-cover: 4.71x - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending May 20th: $4.48T v $4.50T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.7% (15-month low) v 9.0% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.1% v 6.1% w/w ***Market Focal Points/FX***- Asian equity indices are mixed yet again, with Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng outperforming and Nikkei225 tracking lower marginally as it headed into its break. Bank of Japan decision delivered on speculations of economic assessment revision, leaving investors at odds with expectations for continued steady easing from Tokyo. As rumored following stronger than expected Q1 GDP, the BOJ announced the economy "continued to recover moderately" - a negligible revision from last month's "Economy continued moderate recovery trend". The BOJ supported this upgrade with improved view of Consumption and Investment. On the former, it said "consumption has been resilient as a background of steady improvement in employment and income" vs prior "private consumption resilient as a trend with employment and income situation improving steadily". On the latter, BOJ noted "housing investment bottomed out and shown signs of pick up" vs prior "housing investment started to bottom." Bank of Japan still sees y/y rate of CPI around 0%, but also reiterated inflation expectations are rising from longer-term perspective. BOJ Gov Kuroda will seek to clarify the central bank's stance along with any outlook for future policy implications at 06:30GMT.- Shanghai Composite is up another 1.9% entering its midday break, rising above 4,600 to mark another 7-year high. For the week, the index is up a whopping 7%. Sharp rise in margin trading continues to be the fuel fanning this fire - according to latest data, China total margin debt hit a fresh record high of CNY2.01T, up nearly 5% in just a week. Expectations for continued PBoC safety net also remain in focus. After yesterday's disappointing flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC, today's economic calendar was limited to April Conf Board leading index rising by 1.1% v 0.5%. Resident economist noted that "despite April's gain in the Leading Economic Index for China, its six-month increase rate continues to slow, confirming a soft growth outlook for China's economy through the summer.- In FX, lower Treasury yields on the heels of soft Philly Fed and Existing Homes data has translated into USD selloff across the board in Asia. NZD/USD is leading the charge with a 50pip rally to 0.7390. AUD/USD and EUR/USD are up some 25pips above 0.7920 and 1.1140 respectively, while USD/JPY made new lows after BOJ's announcement below 120.80, down nearly 20pips post-statement.***Equities***US equities / ADRs:- ABTL: Guides FY15 higher $1.21-1.27 v $1.08e; ~R$128.0M v $115Me (prior $0.97-1.16 last on 02/26/15); Acquires Dealix for $25M cash; +17.2% afterhours- HPQ: Reports Q2 $0.87 v $0.86e, R$25.5B v $25.8Be; +1.1% afterhours- JMEI: Reports Q1 $0.12 v $0.10e, R$250.6M v $218Me; +0.6% afterhours- ROST: Reports Q1 $1.33 (adj) v $1.28e, R$2.94B v $2.89Be; +0.1% afterhours- BRCD: Reports Q2 $0.22 v $0.20e, R$547M v $551Me; -1.0% afterhours- MRVL: Reports Q1 $0.13 v $0.12e, R$724.3M v $727Me; -2.9% afterhours- ARO: Reports Q1 -$0.56 v -$0.54e, R$318.6M v $325Me; -18.1% afterhours- TWC: Charter in talks with Timer Warner Cable about a bid well above $170 a shareNotable movers by sector:- Consumer discretionary: Li & Fung Ltd 494.HK -2.4% (Wal-Mart to take back some sourcing business); Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK +0.9% (Q1 result); OrotonGroup ORL.AU -12.1% (FY15 guidance)- Financials: Guotai Junan International 1788.HK +8.3% (to issue A shares); Bank of China Hong Kong 2388.HK +5.9% (asset injection in Hong Kong unit); Central China Real Estate 832.HK +8.8% (cooperation with Huayi Brothers)- Industrials: China Railway Group 601390.CN +2.1% (contract in Israel); Cardno Ltd CDD.AU +17.0% (be approached by bidder)- Technology: Lenovo 992.HK -4.9% (FY14/15 result)- SourceTradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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