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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015

US AND UK Q1 GDP WEAKNESS IN FOCUS

  • Queen’s speech to confirm PM Cameron’s intention of holding an EU referendum
  • Greek uncertainty to linger pending key events after the coming week
  • Weakness in UK and US Q1 GDP to be reassessed


European event risk remains at large. Uncertainty around the release of Greek bailout funds remains elevated despite ongoing discussions between Merkel, Hollande and Tsipras at this week’s EU Summit in Riga. However, with the emphasis still on delivering a complete set of measures to resolve the impasse in negotiations, discussions are set to continue over the coming week, with the possibility of an extraordinary Eurogroup meeting at some point. With Greece’s finances still in a precarious state, comments from Greek officials have suggested that failure to reach an agreement would mean that the 5th June payment to the IMF is unlikely to be met. That would raise the risk of Greek becoming the first country to default on an IMF payment.


Queen’s speech to reiterate Cameron’s commitment to EU referendum. While comments from French President Hollande noted that the EU Summit in Riga was not the appropriate place or time to discuss the UK’s membership, the anticipation of an EU referendum remains a key source of uncertainty to the UK outlook. While the surprisingly definitive outcome to the election has removed a large element of political uncertainty, the absence of a coalition partner as an offset to the Conservative’s ambition, presents the UK with a key challenge in the shape of its ties with the EU. The Queen’s speech on Wednesday is expected to confirm PM Cameron’s intention of holding a referendum by end-2017, although any firming in the timing of this is likely to remain elusive at this stage.


UK GDP to be nudged modestly higher while surveys to point towards a firmer outlook. The flow of economic data over the coming week is unlikely to materially alter the current perceptions of the UK economy. The preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP underwhelmed expectations printing at 0.3% q/q. We expect the second estimate (Thurs.) to be revised up to 0.4%, although this would still be below the level of activity implied by the much firmer tone of Q1 business surveys. The expenditure breakdown will be examined to see if household spending continues to provide the lion’s share of propulsion as suggested by the recent strength of retail sales. To the extent that the weakness in Q1 GDP growth could reflect a reduction in inventories, officially measured growth should better reflect the trend implied by surveys in Q2. On Friday, the Lloyds Business Confidence Barometer and GfK Consumer Confidence for April, will provide additional insight into prospects for Q2.


US Q1 GDP to be revised lower. As in the UK, scepticism over the reported weakness in Q1 activity has been widespread in the US following the weaker-than-expected preliminary GDP print last month. The extent to which this slowdown reflected statistical quirks related to seasonal adjustments rather than a genuine slowdown in underlying activity remains a key point of debate. While this uncertainty has received a lot of attention, the flow of data since the first estimate, in particular a large March trade deficit, points to the likelihood of a further downgrade. The second estimate of growth on Friday is expected to be revised down into negative territory. Over the rest of week, data releases including durable goods orders for April and consumer confidence for May, both on Tuesday, should help shed further light on the prospects for a Q2 rebound. Given the dollar’s sharp appreciation in recent months, domestic demand is likely to mostly shoulder the burden of growth, implying particular interest in the fundamentals driving consumer activity. New home sales data (Tues.) will provide a further update on the strength of the rebound in that sector.

 

 

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This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office:25 Gresham Street,LondonEC2V 7HN. Registered inEnglandandWalesno. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House,120 George Street,EdinburghEH2 4LH. Registered inScotlandno. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound,EdinburghEH1 1YZ. Registered inScotlandno. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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