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May U.S. Jobs Data Pivotal: Week Ahead
John M. Bland
U.S. Economic Prospects Starting To Improve?
Increasingly, it appears that markets, and the Fed may be looking beyond mixed U.S. data to a strong recovery later in the year. These data have yet to materialize, but recent data has not been as weak as they had been a month or so ago. I would would characterize them currently as "mixed". For its part, the Fed increasingly seems worried that its policy of excessive policy ease has gone on for too long. The central would very much like to return to a more "normal" monetary policy. Key policy officials continue to warn markets that it is probable they will raise rates sometime this year. With policy being data-dependent, U.S. May employment data due this Friday could play a key role in this policy decision. Odds are either way that the data will be critical to market sentiment.
Next ECB Meeting Week Away The next ECB meeting is on Wednesday. No one expects a policy change anytime soon, but the focus as always will be on the tone of the policy statement and the press conference with President Draghi. I try to keep as objective an eye as possible on Eurozone data. In general it looks to me as though much of the Eurozone is improving, but that Germany might be starting to slow. Of course the Greek debt situation seems never to go away.
Weekly Calendar The upcoming week is an active one for data. -- Monday, June 1 features the release of a slew of manufacturing PMI data from all over the globe. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The PCE deflator is due as well. -- Tuesday June 2, will focus on a monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, German unemployment and the Eurozone flash CPI estimate. -- Wednesday June 3, features the second round of PMI data, the Service sector. Also an ECB policy decision is due along with the ADP May Private payrolls estimate. -- Thursday June 4, will see the latest Bank of England monetary policy decision. No rate change is expected. -- Friday June 5, sees Eurozone GDP, along with key U.S. and Canadian May Employment data. Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland co-founder www.global-view.com
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