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Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 12:24:10 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-09-05 ..... 1140 GMT



Euro @ 1.2474/7....Lightening Short positions
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.2509-22 / 1.2555 / 1.2588-98
S: 1.2442 / 1.2415 / 1.2393
The Euro fell to an intra-day low near 1.2442 today. It is likely to consolidate between 1.2510 and 1.2430 for the next 4-8 hours. We hope for an eventual fall below 1.2430. But, in case the Euro rises above 1.2522, there would again be chances of a rise towards 1.2590.

Squaring:
Exit at current level EUR 20K Short entered at 1.2474. We are exiting this position because we are also holding a Long USD-CHF position, beside a Short EUR-JPY.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.2509, SL 1.2540, TP 1.2428


Euro-Yen @ 136.89/94....Cautiously Short
---------------------------------------
R: 137.05-13 / 137.48
S: 136.78 / 136.51 / 136.32
Both the Euro and then Yen have weakened against the Dollar today. As a result, the Cross has been moving sideways between 136.32 and 136.92. We may hope for fresh selling to emerge (maybe tomorrow) while the market remains below 137.14, but we'll have to be patient. At the same time, a rise above 137.14 could take the Cross up towards 137.48, if not higher.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 136.93, SL 137.19 (down from 137.27), TP 135.22. As soon as the market trades 136.45, bring SL down to 136.83


$-Swiss @ 1.2373/8....Holding Long
----------------------------------
R: 1.2403-07 / 1.2432 / 1.2476
S: 1.2362-50 / 1.2340-19
The statistically projected Max High for today is 1.2432. So, the Dollar may not rise beyond that today. Above that, there is strong Resistance at 1.2476. This may cap the Dollar's bounce for a couple of days. On the downside, we have multi-layered Support from 1.2360 down to 1.2320. A break of this Support region will be needed to trigger a fresh fall towards 1.2228. The chances do not look very bright at this point of time.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.2389, SL 1.2320, TP 1.2430


Cable @ 1.8432/37....Holding Long
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.8494-8503 / 1.8532-55-76
S: 1.8432 / 1.8389-72
The Cable has been moving up through the day, in contrast to the Euro (note the fall in EUR-GBP today). While above 1.8420 now, there are chances of the Cable moving up to 1.8488 or so, if not higher. Above that the strong and crucial Resistance between 1.8532 and 1.8576 remain to be dealt with. A fall from here to below the day's low near 1.8372 does not look likely in the immediate scenario.

Holding:
GBP 15K Long at 1.8407, TSL 1.8417, TP 1.8488



Aussie @ 0.7668/73...Sell below 0.7648
---------------------------------------
R: 0.7688 / 0.7720 / 0.7760-80
S: 0.7652 / 0.7621-0.7591 / 0.7575-70
The pair has bounced back from the support at 0.7648, but faces strong resistance at 0.7688-0.7700. While the resistance holds the current bounce might find it difficult to sustain. A break below 0.7648 support may see a fall to 0.7608. Currently trading indecisive between 0.7648-0.7700, it might remain bearishly biased within the range.

Order:
Sell Aussie 30K at 0.7635, SL 0.7660, TP open.



Yen @ 109.59/63...Strong resistance at 110.12
-------------------------------------------
R: 109.79-93 / 110.07-14
S: 109.35-28 / 108.72
The current rally seen from 109.12 to 109.82 could continue to 110.12 Resistance. If it rises above that, there would chances of a rise further to 110.80. On the other hand if it remains below 110.12, it might attract sellers for a dip back to 109.60 and 109.35. For now, we would look for a consolidation between 110.12-109.12 for a couple of days. The bearish bias is likely to resume only on a fall below 109.00.





Happy Trading!

 

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