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Wednesday June 10, 2015 - 09:39:40 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: EUR/USD gains as Bund yield hits 1% for first time since Sept

Wed, 10 Jun 2015 5:17 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
EUR/USD gains as Bund yield hits 1% for first time since Sept
European yield curves generally steeper
JPY broadly firmer amid BoJ Kuroda comments on real effective exchange rates
NOK gains on hotter than expected CPI; June Norges Bank rate decision in focus
France and Italy April Industrial production well below ests; UK production data mixed

**Economic data***
(NO) NORWAY MAY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E

(UK) APR MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION M/M: -0.4% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR
(UK) APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.4% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 0.6%E
(FR) FRANCE APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.9% V +0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V +1.0%E
(FR) FRANCE APR MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION M/M: -1.0% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: -0.4% V +0.5%E
(IT) ITALY APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.8% V 4.3% PRIOR; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION WDA Y/Y: 0.1% V 1.0%E
(SE) SWEDEN APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y +1.5% V -2.0%E
(TR) TURKEY Q1 GDP WDA Q/Q: 1.3% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 1.7%E; GDP (UNADJ) Y/Y: 2.3% V 1.7%E

Fixed Income:
(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS €6.5B 12-MONTH BILLS, AVG YIELD: 0.061% V 0.027% PRIOR, BID TO COVER 1.74X v 1.81X PRIOR

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**

Indices [Stoxx50 flat, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,769, DAX +0.1% at 11,010, CAC-40 flat at 4,851, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,898, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 22,710, SMI +0.5% at 9,022, Athens Stock Exchange -0.5%, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 2,084

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid higher Bund yields, mixed trading session in the US; Spanish retailer Inditex reports better than expected Q1 profits; UK's Sainsbury Q1 sales above ests

By Sector
Technology [Wincor Nixdorf WIN.DE +7% (M&A speculation)]
Energy [Weir Group WEIR.UK -2% (cautious outlook); SMA Solar S92.DE +24% (agreement with Siemens) ]
Consumer Discretionary [Gerry Weber GWI1.DE -18% (profit warning)]
Financials [Standard Chartered STAN.UK +2.5% (S&P raised outlook)]
Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +1%, Utilities +0.5%, Basic Materials +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Telecom flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Industrials -0.4%, Technology -0.3%, Financials -0.2%]

**Speakers**
(JP) BOJ Kuroda: Real effective exchange rate shows yen is weak; may not weaken further on real effective exchange rate basis
(GR) Germany CDU Fuchs: Current Greece offer is 'non-negotiable'; Current Greek proposals are not serious

**Currencies***
-In a busy European session, Bund Yields traded above 1% for the first time since late September as Bund futures dropped over a full point to a new contract low of 148.30 before paring some of the move. The move has been said to be supported by strong put option buying as the unwind continues. The selloff has been evident across the Bond space with BTP futures off as much as 160 ticks well below the 130 level and trading as low as 128.76, and long Gilts were off as much as 50 ticks at 114.50 establishing below 115 level.
-The rise in Yields has resulted in dollar weakness across the board with the EUR/USD trading up by as much as 100 pips to 1.1380 from 1.1280 before fading some of the move, the AUS/USD is up over 140 pips from the day lows trading at 0.7780 and the NZD/USD was up over 100 pips to a high of 0.7235 before paring some of the move.
-USD/JPY was a strong mover with the pair moving as low as 122.49 a drop of over 200 pips and a 2 week low after BoJ Kuroda said the real effective exchange rate shows the yen is "very weak". The pair is currently trading at 122.65 off its lows but well below the session high of 124.63.
-GBP/USD has been in focus after mixed data out this morning. UK industrial production was better than expected but this was countered by worse than expected manufacturing production data. Cable trades at 1.5435 off the highs at 1.5470 but up over 50 pips for the day as it benefited from overall dollar weakness.

**Political/In the Papers:
(UK) There is speculation that Chancellor Osborne could announce changes to bank levy - UK Press
(GR) Greece talks this week said to make no progress to end impasse (in line with recent speculation) - US financial press
(GR) No meeting scheduled between France's Hollande, Germany's Merkel and Greece's Tspiras in brussels today - french source

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q2 BER Business Confidence: No est v 49 prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 5th: No est v % prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank May Minutes
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.2% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (UK) May NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.4% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (US) May Monthly Budget Statement May
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (NZ) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 21:00 (AU) Australia Jun Consumer Inflation Expectation
- 21:30 (AU) Australia May Employment Change: No est v -2.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.2% prior
- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills
- 23:45 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds
-(UK) Chancellor Osborne and BoE Gov Carney speeches at Annual Mansion House dinner

 

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