Wednesday June 17, 2015 - 11:22:09 GMT
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PREVIEW: Federal Reserve Policy Decision at 18:00 GMT
United States Interest rates. Into the FOMC decision on Wednesday. A mild upward BIAS in rates is evident, but no early rate changes appear to be in the cards.
I am expecting a lot of double-talk from Yellen today. I think it is the Fed's desire to hike rates in September if conditions warrant, but not to commit to a rate hike before they are certain. So she has to continue her hawkish talk, but be careful not to signal anything specific, so she has the leeway to postpone the rate move if needed.Personally, I would rip off the bandage today and get it over with. I find this endless hand wringing to be tiresome. The U.S. economy is by no means raging, but it no longer is in a crisis situation, so a "nomalization" of policy could be explained as a signal that the U.S. financial crisis over and we are moving on.As for trading, the safe thing to assume is that we could see price volatility at any time during the day today. The Greek crisis is EURUSD positive because it generates EUR liquidity demand, while the Fed decision should be USD positive. Liquidity demand normally trumps psychology.
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