Thursday September 8, 2005 - 00:46:55 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 8th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2444 ... 1.2473 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2536
Support....: 1.2404 ... 1.2380 ... 1.2356 ... 1.2331
Cautiously, while 1.2462-76 caps we feel there is room for losses to 1.2297-1.2330
While gains were made yesterday, these remained below the final 1.2543-68 resistance to keep the downside intact. However, initial trading today should see price rally back towards 1.2444 and probably the 1.2462-76 area but we feel this should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance would require a break of this resistance area and if seen would trigger gains back to 1.2536 at least and probably 1.2576-88. Next resistance is then found at 1.2629.
Losses were seen to 1.2400-15 and while we are a little concerned over the lack of stronger downside, until the 1.2462-76 area breaks we feel the downside has further to go. Indeed, there is a good chance this resistance area will be tested over the first half of the day but while it caps we look for losses to resume to the 1.2297-1.2330 area at least. Below here is required to accelerate losses to 1.2255 and probably 1.2234.
Elliott Wave Comments:
6th September 2005
There appears to be few Fibonacci relationships to confirm wave structure at the moment which inreases the uncertainty. We can only observe the daily 50% Wave (iv) retracement at 1.2672 and would expect that to be the most we see if there is a further rally. However, it could be argues that the wave structure within Wave c may have completed five waves higher at 1.2588 and thus we need be a little flexible until we have established a peak. There is internal support around 1.2450 but if this breaks then we'd begin to feel that a high has been seen to daily Wave (iv) and thus we should see the larger weekly downtrend resume.
8th September 2005
So far so good for the downside but the structure has been less than clear. Tentatively we do consider the 1.2440 low as the end of Wave (i) and yesterday's recovery to 1.2536 as Wave (ii) which should imply a decline to 1.2297-1.2330 but we also note that the downside momentum has been rather slow and thus could be interpreted as part of a multipple zig-zag pattern. Thus we still want to approach this with caution and need a stronger downward display to keep the bearish preference intact...
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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