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Week Ahead: ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015

DEAL OR NO DEAL?

         Greek impasse continues as negotiations enter a critical phase

         US payrolls report to show labour market is continuing to tighten

         June PMIs to highlight the strength of the UK economy

Despite ongoing negotiations over the past week, a significant gap still remains between Greece and its creditors, so much so that negotiations have entered a critical phase. Political pressure to reach an agreement by market opening on Monday remains intense, the lack of which would likely severely impact on sentiment. This would risk placing Greece’s banking system under further strain, which has seen total deposits plummet by around 25% in the past eight months, raising the potential for capital controls;  particularly if the ECB restricts access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) which has proved a key lifeline over the past few weeks.

A further meeting of eurozone finance ministers is scheduled for Saturday afternoon, ahead of which a working group of euro officials is expected to continue working behind the scenes to iron out differences. Even with a successful conclusion to negotiations being reached over the weekend, the timetable remains extremely tight in order to ensure that the bailout programme is extended past Tuesday’s deadline. The terms of any agreement would need to be rushed through the Greek parliament and passed successfully before the other euro nations, in particular Germany, present the terms to their own respective parliaments.

In the event of a successful conclusion to the Greek saga, market anxieties are likely to be eased and attention is expected to switch to the US and the likely timing of the first rate hike by the FOMC. The coming week is an important one for assessing the extent to which US economic growth is picking up in Q2 following its weak start to the year. The Fed’s identification of further labour market improvement as one of the key preconditions for a hike in interest rates means that Thursday’s payrolls report - published early due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday - will be particularly eagerly awaited. Other indicators suggest that the labour market has continued to tighten in
recent weeks. With initial jobless claims remaining low during June, we expect a 235k rise in employment, while the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 5.4%, and earnings growth is expected to remain stable at 2.3%. 

Aside from payrolls, other indicators will provide updates on the strength of activity in May and June. The manufacturing ISM (Wed) has so far this year looked stronger than ‘official’ data, although the sector has been impacted by the strength of the dollar. While regional surveys for June have been mixed, we expect the manufacturing ISM to fall modestly following last month’s very strong rise. May data for construction (Wed) and factory orders (Thurs.) will give indications over the extent to which GDP growth will rebound in Q2. A rise in excess of 3% annualised, would likely leave a September rate hike by the Fed on the cards.  

Similar to the US, the outlook for UK activity in Q2 remains a key consideration in assessing the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates. Following comments from Martin Weale over the past week, the likelihood of a split vote at the August MPC meeting looks an increasing possibility. While developments in the labour market will be key, a firm activity background also remains essential.  The PMIs and hard data for Q2 so far point to an acceleration in GDP growth from the slowdown in Q1. This view is expected to be confirmed by pickups in the June PMIs (see back page). Ahead of which the Lloyds Business Confidence Barometer will be watched for an early insight into June business sentiment.

In a light calendar week for the euro area, aside from the final read of June PMIs, the ‘flash’ estimate of June CPI inflation (Tues.) is expected to show headline and core inflation unchanged, before resuming its upward trend over the coming months as deflation risks recede further.

 

 

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This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office:25 Gresham Street,LondonEC2V 7HN. Registered inEnglandandWalesno. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House,120 George Street,EdinburghEH2 4LH. Registered inScotlandno. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound,EdinburghEH1 1YZ. Registered inScotlandno. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

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