Thursday September 8, 2005 - 14:13:23 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
Forex: Global-View Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned slightly bearish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2548 from 1.2072 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (September 6 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2485.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned more bullish the EUR/USD after the recent changes in the spot rate to 55 from 40 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast deteriorated to 107.18 from 109.84 one month ago.
The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 109.65. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index became more bearish the dollar from the previous forecast. It was 34 after 40.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall to a mean $63.56 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $60.84 estimate.
In a tracking question, participants were asked where the Fed funds rate would close the year. 56% (27%) expect an increase to 3.75% or less, from its current 3.50%. 29% (43%) expect a move to 4.00%, and 15% (30%) see 4.25%. Numbers in brackets ( ) are August 3 results.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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