Thursday September 8, 2005 - 14:15:57 GMT
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Forex: Global-View Survey Analysis by Cumino
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: (1st day close 1.2480, av. responses 1.2548, Adjusted boundaries 1.21-1.29).
GVI 55% (40%) COMPONENTS 17% 57% 26% (44% 33% 23%)
Bullish.EUR. The components show that the bullish camp is roughly unchanged, while the great switch was from bearish to neutral. Short term reading (R.B.) is consistent with that view.
USD JPY 3 months: (1st day close 109.55, av. responses 107.18, Adjusted boundaries 106-114)
GVI: 31% (45%) COMPONENTS: 44% 50% 6% (21% 68% 11%)
Bearish USD. It’s worth noting that during the life of the Survey history that the average of responses was always lower than the reference spot, with a -1.14 average spread. BTW the –2.37 current reading is not far from the 2STDEV. It could signal some stop-loss on the way up not far from spot.
Short term Survey reading (R.B.) shows the fourth consecutive diminution of the index. The current number is the lowest ever seen.
OIL 3 months: (1st day close 65.96, av. responses 63.92, Adjusted boundaries 59-72)
44% (46%) COMPONENTS: 25% 61% 14% (16% 77% 7%)
Slightly bearish. Short term shows more bearish sentiment.
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