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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Global equity markets stabilize

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Chinese measures to stabilize markets start to kick in; Asian stock markets rebound; commodity steady
- Bank of Korea keeps policy steady; BoK has revised its growth outlook lower
- Awaiting details of the promised reform plans from GreeK govt as Grexit becomes the main scenario

**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany May Current Account Balance (miss): €11.1B v €16.0Be; Trade Balance (miss): €19.5B v €20.5Be; Exports M/M: +1.7% v -0.8%e; Imports M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e

- (SE) Sweden Jun PES Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 3.7% prior
- (JP) Japan Jun Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 6.6 v 15.0% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jun CPI (miss) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (CZ) Czech Jun Unemployment Rate (in line): 6.2% v 6.2%e
- (HU) Hungary May Preliminary Trade Balance: € 0.5Bv €0.5B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jun CPI M/M: -0.4% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jun CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- (GR) Greece Jun CPI (beat) Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.4%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.7%e
- (GR) Greece Apr Unemployment Rate (in line): 25.6% 25.6%e

Fixed Income Issuance:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.2%,
FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,532, DAX +1% at 10,857, CAC-40 +1.2% at 4,694, IBEX-35 +1.2% at 10,556, FTSE MIB +1% at 21,725, SMI +1% at 8,941, Athens Stock Exchange closed, S&P 500 Futures +0.7% at 2,053]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open slightly higher amid rebound in Chinese equities: End of today deadline for Greece's reform proposal in focus; Associated British Foods reaffirms outlook; Balfour Beatty issues another profit warning; Sugar firm Suedzucker reaffirmed outlook; Resource-related firms see some support from rebound in commodity prices; Pepsico to report Q2 earnings

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Air France AF.FR +2.5% (labor agreement), Barratt Developments BDEV.UK +2% (guided FY profits +45% y/y); Zalando ZALG.DE -2% (share placement)]
- Industrials [Gerresheimer GXI.DE +3.5% (Q2 profits above ests), BMW BMW.DE +2% (June sales +8%); Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -3% (profit warning), Aixtron AIXA.DE -3% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Cellectis ALCLS.FR +7% (milestone agreement)]
- Energy [Saipem SPM.IT -5% (order cancellation)]
- Financials [Man Group EMG.UK +10% (no news)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +2.1%, Technology +1.7%, Financials +1.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.2%, Basic Materials +0.9%, Telecom +0.7%, Industrials +0.6%, Utilities +0.5%, Energy flat]

**Speakers**
- ECB chief Draghi:
Finding a solution for Greece was difficult. Not likely that Russia would help Greece
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany): Doubts about solvency of Greek banks are legitimate and rising by the day, Eurosystem should not raise Greek liquidity provision. No central bank mandate for securing banks or State solvency. Greece needs to maintain its capital controls and he was against duel mandate for monetary policy; against raising inflation target
- ECB's Hansson (Estonia) reiterated ECB had tools to deal with any potential Grexit
- Greek Bank Association Head: Banks will have cash in ATMs until Monday
- Italy Fin Min Padoan: Solution for Greece needs backing of National Parliaments
- Greece Dep Fin Min Dimitris: Not aware of any plans for bank mergers
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer reiterated view to maintain floor in EUR/CZK pair through H2 2016
- Japan PM Abe Adviser Honda: China equity decline not raising need for fresh BoJ easing. Did not think BoJ needed to raise purchases of equity funds
- Japan Econ Min Amari: Hoped China can achieve a soft economic landing

**Currencies***
. Awaiting details of the promised reform plans from Greece
. The EUR/USD was somewhat steady as participant s believed ECB was better equipped to address any uncertainty should a Grexit occur (arsenal includes QE, SMP, OMT) . Some investors that believe that cutting out EMU's weakest link is positive may even be inclined to buy EUR-denominated assets. EUR/USD at 1.1030 just ahead of the NY morning. The pair did test above 1.11 during the early part of the session
- Stabilization of global equity markets took off some of the sfe-haven appeal of the yen. USD/JPY was at 121.30 just ahead of the NY morning. Dealers noted of a large 119.50 put option being written with a July 22nd expiration. The due date was just after the Greek payment to the ECB and implied risk aversion remain a concern.

**Fixed Income:
- Bund futures
trade at 153.26 up 8 ticks on the day after trading below 153 earlier in the session. Bunds have been on the decline after rejection at 154.24 yesterday. A break of the 154.24 top have analysts targeting 154.41 the top of the upward channel as potential resistance, if strength continues 155.34 becomes the next target representing June 1st highs. Analysts look for support at 152.79 just below today's low at 152.93, with 152.45 next. Below this would see a retest of 152.00.
- Thursday's liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity rose slightly to €400.7B a rise of €1.7B from €399B prior due to €1.95B added from this weeks MRO and a decrease in AFs and MonPol portfolios with this offset slightly due to a fall in the amount borrowed in the overnight loan facility. Overnight lending fell to €306M from €1B prior.
- UK Gilt futures trades at 117.02 near flat for the day and trading mid range. After trading above 118 yesterday and reversing, near term resistance is seen by analysts at 117.41/51 with a move back to 118.15 contract highs with 118.86 next should strength continue . Near term support lies just below the low of the day at 116.82 with a break below here should see the 116.45 base hold.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) EMU and ECB said to be evaluating whether to continue to provide liquidity to Greece banks as part of a humanitarian situation; and may require guarantees from Greece for the liquidity - press; The ESM mechanism could be used as part of the guarantee in the case of this contingency plan to allow banks to continue operating during the bailout discussions
- (GR) Greece to extend bank holiday and capital controls through Friday
-(CN) PBoC to inject CNY35B in 7-day reverse repos (5th consecutive injection); neutral position this week v injected CNY50B prior
- (CN) CSRC adopted a series of measures to support substantial shareholders (5% stake or more) and execs to increase holdings; Cannot reduce holdings in secondary market within 6 months - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa May Total Mining Production M/M: -1.5%e v -4.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.6%e v 7.7% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v -9.1% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: No est v 81.6% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds
- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 05:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Central Banks in Frankfurt
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- 06:00 (EU) EU's Tusk with Luxembourg PM Bettel
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England Bank (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rate and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and £375B respectively
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa May Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.5%e v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: +1.0%e v -2.0% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): 0.6%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e July 3rd: No est v $362.0B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May National Unemployment Rate: 8.1%e v 8.0% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho at event in Lisbon
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Jun Annualized Housing Starts: 190.0Ke v 201.7K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 275Ke v 281K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.25Me v 2.264M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (DE) German Finance Ministry at Bundsbank conference (along with France Fin Min Sapin)
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun CPI M/M: +0.2%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 09:00 (US) IMF updates global economic outlook (WEO)

- 10:00 (EU) EU's Juncker with Iceland PM Gunnlaugsson in Brussels
- 10:15 (US) Fed's Brainard (dove, voter)
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) EU's Juncker with Serbia PM Vucic in Brussels
- 13:00 (US) Fed's George (non-voter, hawk) speaks on Economy in Stillwater, Oklahoma
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13.0B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Jun Monetary Policy Minutes
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Import Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -14.6% prior
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Export Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.5% prior
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.1% prior
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines May Exports: No est v $4.4B prior
- 23:00 (CN) China to sell 1-Year, 3-year and 5-year Bonds
- (MX) Mexico Jun ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 7.4% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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