Sunday September 11, 2005 - 08:29:13 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 12th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2465 ... 1.2511 ... 1.2540 ... 1.2576
Support....: 1.2406 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2368 ... 1.2345
We look for 1.2368-85 to support and for gains back to 1.2462-67 at least with 1.2536-74 then targeted
Price stalled a little lower than expected on Friday and retraced to 1.2385. We suspect this probably formed the low for the correction and while there is a risk of initial sideways consolidation we are in general bullish. Thus while 1.2368-85 supports we shall expect to see gains today and on a break of the 1.2462-67 highs we shall look for gains to extend towards 1.2536-74 at least where a pullback is possible. Next resistance is at 1.2602-06.
The peak at 1.2467 and retracement to 1.2385 has altered the structure slightly but we feel in a more bullish way. However, we should be aware that while 1.2462-67 caps there is a small risk of losses extending below 1.2385 and down to 1.2368 but are reluctant to be any further bearish. Thus a stronger bearish stance requires a break below 1.2368 and if seen would see follow-through lower towards 1.2291-1.2307.
Elliott Wave Comments:
12th September 2005
The structure we had been considering on Friday looks a little wrong but the adjustment looks more bullish. The point to be noticed is that the correction from 1.2467 to 1.2385 represented a 50% pullback to the rally from 1.2307 to 1.2467 and thus looks more to be a Wave b retracement in Wave iii. Thus we look for Wave c of Wave iii to develop with targets which can be projected at: 1.2536-45 being 138.2% of Wave i, at 1.2576 being 161.8% and whould there be any aggressive follow-through we should watch out for resistance at 1.2655 where Wave c is equal to 161.8% of Wave a and also 1.2742-50 where Wave iii is 261.8% of Wave i and where the last Wave b lies in the decline from 1.3080. This higher target does look attractive.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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