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Monday September 12, 2005 - 10:58:51 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Koizumi sails to victory in Japan.
• EUR-USD breaks lower in Asia.
• UK PPI soft. Norwegian election outcome too close to call.

Market Outlook

A resounding victory for Koizumi, although this has not been sufficient so far to push USD-JPY lower on a sustainable basis. This owes much to the strength of the USD though, as the JPY is stronger on most other crosses. Key today for USD-JPY will be whether it can make it below 108.70-80. This is required to keep the move going and a good indication of the chances of such a short-term development will come from the ability of it to stay below 110.00 through today. The Koizumi victory is good news and some Upper House members who previously voted against the postal reform bill have now said they will support it in light of the huge mandate offered by the public. However, more evidence of solid economic news may also be required to trigger the sustainable medium-term JPY strength favoured in our forecast profile.

EUR-USD fell sharply in Asia following the break below Friday’s low at 1.2376 and has not shown much ability to bounce since then. The move looks like extending to 1.2250 (possibly lower) in the early part of this week and the EUR will also be influenced by the opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s German election. The SPD are still behind the CDU but the margin is now much tighter and currently points to no clear government. This would be considered as a negative development for the reform effort in both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole.

As for the US, the market is likely to retain some uncertainty about the impact of the hurricane, but one senses that there will be underlying confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the disruption. Furthermore, the rebuilding effort will eventually provide a significant boost to activity. The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting remains uncertain, although themedium-term outlook of more tightening remains firmly in place. The major threat to this developing consensus will be energy prices. A renewed ramp up in crude prices would be a threat.

UK PPI was today’s only data release of any real interest and it was softer than expected. This relieves one potential constraint on future easing, but in itself will not guarantee such an action. Market impact was limited.

Day Ahead
Norway – the outcome of today’s parliamentary election is subject to much uncertainty, although this is not proving to be a major problem for the NOK. Indeed, the prospect of a change in government to one more inclined to spend some of Norway’s oil money is a potential positive for the NOK in flow terms. More of the USD oil revenues could be transferred back into NOK rather than being recycled into foreign assets via the Petroleum Fund. The opposition centre-left had been ahead in the polls, although over the past week the centre-right has recovered to be on equal terms. EUR-NOK has been soft in recent weeks, although it is not clear that there will be enough to take out the 7.72 lows from April/May 2003 just yet. Such a break is favoured over the next 1-2 months, but the tone of the comments that accompany the likely September 21 Norges Bank rate hike will be critical in determining whether this can happen in the short-term.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
NO Norwegian parlmnt election
Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP GDP (Q2, final) q/q +0.8% +0.4%
JP Domestic CGPI (Aug) y/y +1.7% +1.7%
JP Current account (Jul, sa) Y1367bn Y1414bn
CN CPI (Aug) y/y +1.3% +1.8%
GB PPI input (Aug) m/m +0.2% +1.4%
GB PPI output (Aug) m/m +0.3% +0.4%
GB PPI output core (Aug) y/y +1.9% +2.1%
GB ODPM house prices (Jul) y/y +4.0% +4.0%
* Consensus unless stated
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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