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Monday September 12, 2005 - 12:29:12 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-09-05 ..... 1219 GMT


Euro @ 1.2315/18.....Breaking down?
-----------------------------------
R: 1.2344-53 / 1.2379-90 / 1.2404-22
S: 1.2290 / 1.2266-52
The Euro seems to be breaking down and the region below 1.2342 is potential "Bear territory" for it. It has some Support for today in the 1.2310-2290 region. If that breaks (50% chances either way), it can fall towards 1.2266-52 (intra-week Support). That would be its last defence, because a fall below 1.2250 might signal a top is in place above 1.2500 for the Euro. While the 1.2310-2290 Support holds for now, there is a chance the Euro could move up towards 1.2375-85.

Holding:
EUR 20K Long at 1.2326, SL 1.2290, TP 1.2368


$-Yen @ 109.74/78....Range 109-112 is working
----------------------------------------------
R: 110.08 / 110.44-68-76
S: 109.57-46 / 109.19-108.95 / 108.77
The Dollar dropped to 108.96 early in the morning, but has been rising since then. Important Resistance at 110.02-08. Should the market rise above that also, then we could again be headed up towards 110.49, the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. Basically, our view that the market is ranged between 109-112 seems to be working out.

Order:
Buy $25K at 109.36, SL 109.14, TP 110.27


Euro-Yen @ 135.17/22.....Last Supports 135.10 and 134.56
---------------------------------------------------------
R: 135.51-74 / 135.89-91 / 136.21
S: 135.14-134.99 / 134.79-62 / 134.24
The Cross finds some important Support in the 135.27-10 region and further Support at 134.56. This Support is unlikely to break this week, and thus keep the Cross ranged between 134.55 and 137.00 for the week. In case the Support at 134.46 breaks, the Cross could turn bearish f0r 133.86 and lower.

Order:
Buy EUR 20K at 134.75, SL 134.25, TP 136.50




$-Swiss @ 1.2536/41....Strong resistances overhead
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2568-71 / 1.2593 / 1.2625
S: 1.2528-18 / 1.2481-77 / 1.2453-40
The Dollar has moved up significantly today, rising further from the morning. It now faces some very strong/crucial Resistances in the 1.2544-71 region. Above that it has the super-crucial Trend Resistance at 1.2630. Currently we are not betting on these breaking before the FOMC meet next week. BUT, if and when these Resistances break, the Dollar could embark on a sustainable upmove.

But, while it trades below 1.2571, there may be chances of the Dollar dropping back to 1.2500 or maybe even 1.2450

No orders for now.


Cable @ 1.8264/69....Bearish now
-------------------------------------
R: 1.8305 / 1.8325 / 1.8350-68-78 / 1.8419
S: 1.8258 / 1.8226-15 / 1.8187
There's a good danger that the potential "Bull Flag" we mentioned in the morning might be negated. If so, the Cable could fall towards 1.8200 initially and then towards 1.8145.
IN CASE the Cable rises above 1.8325, it might still faces Resistances between 1.8350-68. For now we prefer to retain our sell order.

Order:
Sell GBP 15K at 1.8260, SL 1.8320, TP 1.8180.




Happy Trading!


Aussie @ 0.7718/23.....Wait and watch
--------------------------------------
R: 07737 / 0.7780 / 0.7815
S: 0.7687-84 / 0.7646-23 / 0.7614-06
The Aussie did indeed find Support at 0.7706 today and bounced a bit back up to 1.7727 (as we'd suggested it might). Expect it to cool down and trade between 0.7710 and 0.7738 for sometime today. Currently the Aussie remains in an overall uptrend. BUT, in case there's a Day Close below 0.7700, the uptrend may come into serious doubt. Wait and watch.




Happy Trading!

 

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