User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 21:41:11 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Surprising Decline in Trade Deficit Helps Dollar to Extend Rally

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-13-05

· Surprising Decline in Trade Deficit Helps Dollar to Extend Rally
· Inflation on the Rise in Europe and the UK
· Weak Economic Data Sends Yen Tumbling

US Dollar

During the US trading session, the dollar continued to gain strength against the euro even though it ended the day virtually unchanged. The trade balance came in much better than expected, narrowing from an upwardly revised $59.5B to $57.9B for the month of July. The market had expected the trade deficit to increase due to rising oil prices, but an up tick in exports to record levels helped to narrow the overall balance. China has been increasing its appetite for US goods, with exports to the country also rising to a record high. It seems as if the effect of higher energy prices on demand has been more significant than the upward pressure that it is exerting on input prices. The detail of the release indicates that the demand for pharmaceuticals, clothing and aircraft have all fallen during month of July. It is important to reiterate that the trade balance is for July, which means that it does not include the impact of Katrina. The move in the dollar suggests that the market recognizes that the data is delayed and not a particularly reliable indicator of the health of US economy. This is the same sort of price action that we saw in the non-farm payrolls number released earlier this month. The trade balance is expected to get progressively worse over the next few months. In August, crude oil prices increased 17%. The closure of the ports in the Gulf States should have had a negative impact on imports. Meanwhile, producer price growth was also softer than expected, with the headline index rising only 0.6% in the month of August and core prices remaining unchanged. This raises the question of whether higher energy prices are actually having a disinflationary effect on other products.

Euro

Consumer prices in the Eurozone edged higher in the month of August despite mediocre growth. Today’s report brings forth the ECB’s tactic to focus their attention on inflation rather than growth – which has been steadily rising. The French trade deficit increased to EUR 2.6 billion from EUR 1.3 billion in the month of July. Weak domestic demand has dragged exports lower once again, which continues to come in contrast to the improvements that we have been seeing in Germany. At the polls, Merkel and Schroeder’s party continues to advance head to head, with neither commanding a strong majority. Tomorrow we have a light Eurozone economic calendar, so all eyes should be focused on the US Retail sales and Industrial Production reports.

British Pound

Another blow to further interest rate cut speculation was felt today as inflationary pressures rose above the central bank’s target for another month. Already above the 2% benchmark at 2.3 %, consumer prices increased to 2.4% in the month of August, the highest level in at least 8 years, according to the Office for National Statistics. This means that given the hawkish ideology of central bankers, concerns over sluggish consumer spending and staid housing valuations will have to take a back seat while persistent worries over climbing energy and oil costs move to the forefront. Reflective of current difficulties, U.K. Chancellor Gordon Brown urged other industrial economies to take certain measures in stabilizing the current prices of oil as certain sectors continue to be on the decline. Most notably, domestic airlines, where fuel costs constitute close to 25% of overall inputs, and domestic trucker strikes have grabbed the attention of policy makers in recent days. Ultimately, this places Governor King and company in an interesting position with many previously expecting further rate cuts as called for by several sources including the Confederation of Business Industry to improve the current economic landscape. In any case, traders are already siding with the notion of no further cuts for the year as the implied rate on the December contract currently resides at 4.49%.

Japanese Yen

Disappointing economic figures added to the glee of yen bears as industrial production for the world’s second largest economy fell short of consensus estimates. Expected to decline 1.1%, in line with the previous figure, the most recent data pointed to a 1.2% decline in the month of July. As a result, sentiment still remains that the once touted economic recovery remains sluggish at best and may actually be momentarily questionable. Contributing to overall skepticism has been recent declines in consumer spending and investment, although capital investment still remains supportive. On the flipside, the continued rise in the benchmark Nikkei 225, setting fresh 4 year highs on the session, seems to be reflective of growing optimism of future gains by global foreign interests backed by brighter commentary by policy officials in recent days. Additionally, one cannot forget the increasing probability of forthcoming financial reform in relation to yesterday’s election win by Prime Minister Koizumi. Combine all of these factors and you still have a hint of brighter things to come despite the recently weak economic figures. Separately, released during the day were minutes from the Bank of Japan’s monetary meeting on August 8-9th. Although no rate changes were discussed, or even expected, board members remain steadfast in their watch for signs that would confirm the end of deflationary conditions in the economy. Notably, however, two members elected to decrease the current 30-35 trillion yen liquidity target in order to ramp up activity, but were defeated yet again by the resounding majority.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105