Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 00:58:59 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 14th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2642 ... 1.2660 ... 1.2686 ... 1.2730
Support....: 1.2580 ... 1.2544 ... 1.2524 ... 1.2491
We require a break above 1.2644 to extend gains to 1.2686-96 else a pullback to 1.2524-44 is possible
Gains stalled just short of the 1.2642-44 resistance and this now is key to any further gains. The wave structure became a little unclear yesterday but we actually see potential now for gains to extend a little futher to the 1.2686-95 area. For this to occur we require the 1.2575-80 area to support and for a move above 1.2638-44 which would then allow the rally to reach target but will expect a deeper pullback from there. Next resistance is at 1.2730.
We have seen price reach alomost to the 1.2642 resistance and this may cause a deeper pullback. However, we would prefer to wait for a break back below 1.2575-80 to signal the next drop which we feel would move down to the 1.2524-44 area which, if seen, should hold. Only a break there would trigger stronger losses down to the 1.2640 pivot support.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th September 2005
The break above 1.2574 now suggests a move to the 261.8% Wave iii target at 1.2742, this being the level of the prior Wave b resistance. We feel that we should see Wave iii of Wave c complete around 1.2642 where a pullback is possible but while this remains above the broad 1.2550 area the rally can reach the 1.2742 target.
14th September 2005
We have seen gains progress nicely but we have struggled a little with coordinating Fibonacci relationships between the internal wave counts. What we have noticed is that there is greater argument for the 1.2467 high to be counted as Wave -i- and the 1.2385 correction as Wave -ii-. This would imply the current rally is only Wave -a- of Wave -iii- and thus the picture is more strongly bullish.
To bring confirmation of this we need see if price can rally to the 1.2686-96 area today and if so, we'd label this as Wave -a- and expect a pullback to the 1.2544 area in Wave -b- before further strength in Wave -c-.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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