Thursday September 15, 2005 - 00:49:33 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 15th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.8258 ... 1.8275 ... 1.8303 ... 1.8324
Support....: 1.8200 ... 1.8081 ... 1.8146 ... 1.8100
Mixed - though we feel the main risk is lower and look for moves to test support at 1.8180-00, 1.8146 and possibly 1.8095
Price rallied to stall just below our maximum retracement resistance at 1.8303 and we feel this should have marked a high. The pattern is a little unclear and it will be best to wait for breaks to confirm moves though we feel the bias is lower. There is support at 1.8180-1.8205 and this may be tested quickly this morning but should hold. We then need to guage how deep the pullback can be though we suspect we should see no higher than 1.8240-58. Thus only above here would threaten the 1.8298-1.8303 high with next resistance at 1.8324.
With the pullback holding below 1.8303 we are more inclined to the downside and do expect an early test of the 1.8180-1.8205 area. While the pullback remains below 1.8240-58 we feel there should be further losses down to the 1.8146 and possibly 1.8090-00 areas but this could well hold on the day. Next support is then at 1.8039-52.
Elliott Wave Comments:
15th September 2005
Yesterday's price action provided us with a little more evidence but we remain a little mixed considering the views in the other currencies. In may ways it looked as if yesterday's recovery imply Wave a stalled at 1.8180 with the peak at 1.8298 being Wave b. This would then imply direct losses in Wave c to complete Wave iii. We see a 161.8% projection in Wave iii at 1.8146 and a 261.8% projection at 1.7973.
However, the 1.8146 target appears to close but may provide support for a more complex Wave b and therefore a return to 1.8298-1.8303 once again. Any move below 1.8146 does see pivot support at 1.8090-00 but then we need consider the Wave iii target at 1.7973 with a 138.2% projection in Wave c being at 1.7958. This lower target appears valid therefore - we just have to see whether this occurs directly or there can be a deeper pullback in Wave b that must stall below 1.8303-24.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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