Thursday September 15, 2005 - 08:42:20 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil bounced up yesterday to the mid $65ís, while DJIA index managed to close just above the 10.600 mark.
Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today
As it was a premonition, the pair broke down to every single uptrend line on a daily basis yesterday. After a first moment of buying when economic news came out, selling pressure just got so hard that longers could not bare with it. The sell-off that later took place was just to confirm the indicators bearish signals and to pleasure those who had believed in them rather than in pure charting analysis.
Current technical picture will be USD bullish if todayís close holds at current levels, below 1.2220. In fibonaci terms, if the euro could just manage to hold the current levels it would bouncing off the 50% level of the 1.1867-1.2589, a levle I particularly do not rely much on when calculating the fibo levels ... which in turn, leads me to think that were the real battle will be set will be around 1.2150, where we find the key 61.8% fibo level of the previous upleg. However, if that level is seen, it is frankly unlikely that euro will make any fireworks to more than 1.26 and the downtrend could just resume in a strong mood and fast pace. The fact that the 10 EMA is about to cross down the 20-day one makes it more likely than not that we will see maybe today/tomorrow that key fibo level tested. Only a very sharp move above 1.2350, highly unlikely as of now (except for a big economic or geopolitical surprise), would change this view dramatically.
Trading Tips & Alerts:
(1)Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), target 0.9225 and beyond. Its bullish view is deteriorating, therefore it will be safe to protect the position now. Last daily close (sept 9): 0.9121.
(2)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting less bullish view than expected in the previous 2 days, but we assume the risks that are now associated with the pair moving to the low-1.17ís lows and hold the alert as a valid one.
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