User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 15, 2005 - 10:52:19 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD breaks lower – further weakness likely.
• Big jump in Japanese equities should support the JPY.
• UK retail sales soft - RBNZ hawkishness not that emphatic.
• SNB policy announcement due – outside chance of tightening.
• US CPI, business sales/inventories, NY and Philly Fed indices also feature.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD finally broke free of support around 1.2260 in Asia and has remained generally soft through the European morning. Downside risk remains in place with supports coming in at 1.2170 (which should hold today) and 1.2125. The latter needs to break to really focus attention on the lower end of the range below 1.20 but a trendline of sorts that had been supporting the rally since early July has now broken after last night’s price action and this will convey a natural negative bias over the next couple of days.

However, the market will no doubt proceed cautiously given the events scheduled for the coming week. Q2 balance of payments and monthly TIC data are due tomorrow and if there are no fresh negatives this would be another barrier for the USD that will have been overcome. However, the market may not be entirely happy on taking a view until it has heard what the Fed has to say next week about medium-term rate prospects.

Furthermore, uncertainty about the German election has also been a key factor behind the inability of EUR-USD to bounce in recent days. How this turns out at the weekend will also be significant for EUR-USD direction next week. US data today will also hold some significance (see below).

The stronger USD has been supporting USD-JPY, although the large jump in Japanese equities today suggests that postelection optimism may be coming to the fore again. This should be JPY positive insofar as it reflects overseas interest in Japanese equities. BoJ deputy governor Iwata spoke again this morning reiterating his belief that core CPI may soon be on the rise.

The RBNZ left rates unchanged and offered no clear indication that rates would definitely be rising in the short-term. They did believe that further policy tightening could still prove necessary to keep CPI within a 1%-3% band (it saw a fuel boosted headline CPI at 4% over coming quarters, before returning to below 3% beyond that). Their base projection for the 3-mth bill rate was a touch higher than that seen previously and incorporates another hike. However, this should be seen as an indication of policy bias rather than a guarantee of what will happen to rates. They identified the impact of oil prices on global economic growth and the post-election stance of fiscal policy as two major sources of uncertainty in the medium-term and concluded that it would be several months before the impact of these factors could be clarified. The NZD has been on the defensive since the announcement, helped in part by the weaker EUR-USD and this could extend closer to key shortterm support at 0.7000 today.

UK retail sales data was weaker than expected, with the zero m/m outcome for August being supplemented by a downward revision (-0.6% from -0.3%) for July. However, the report is not inconsistent with the anecdotal gloom that has been unearthed in other surveys of the retail sector and the latest data was dragged down by some unusual weakness in the food category. Food sales fell 1.2% m/m and this alone took 0.5% off the headline rate. Still, the data was enough to send into reverse some of the EUR-GBP decline seen over the past week. Above 0.6770 is required to keep this going up to a trendline currently at 0.6790.

Day Ahead
Switzerland – various SNB members have been making noises about the fact that the current low level of interest rates cannot last forever and that growth prospects appear to be improving, but the market is not expecting a hike today. Still, there is an outside chance of a move; especially as the next policy review is not until December. The SNB can of course change policy anytime they like, but intra-review moves are usually in response to undesirable movements in the CHF rather than normal economic circumstances. Other than the risks to growth posed by energy prices the Swiss data has been encouraging over the past few months. This should at least ensure that they signal the likelihood of some ‘normalisation’ in rates if the data continues to proceed along current lines.

US – CPI is unlikely to have that much influence on the market, as in recent months the core CPI has bee extremely subdued (+0.1% m/m in each of the past three months) and the FOMC is more interested in the core PCE price index anyway. Business inventories data is also out but as they have been generally outpaced by the growth in business sales (also released today) there have been no major demand problems as yet. The main focus today will be on the NY and Philly Fed indices to see how manufacturing activity is faring in the current high energy price environment. Last month, both of these Fed indices were fairly robust, but the weaker ISM manufacturing number that followed earlier this month has raised a few question marks.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

SE Unemployment rate (Aug) m/m 07.00 6.8%
CH SNB rate announcement 08.00
US CPI (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US CPI core (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US NY Fed index (Sep) 08.30 15.0
US Business inventories (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Business sales (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.8% last
US Initial claims (w/e Sep 10) 08.30 350k
US Continuing claims (w/e Sep 3) 08.30 2608k
US Philly Fed index (Sep) 12.00 13.5

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ RBNZ rate announcement 6.75% 6.75%
JP Consumer confidence (Sep) m/m 48.4 48.2 last
NO Trade balance (Aug) m/m NOK29bn NOK24bln
GB Retail sales (Aug) m/m 0.0% +0.3%
*Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105