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Thursday September 15, 2005 - 21:50:49 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ MPS ensures choppy NZD trading
It was a choppy day's trading yesterday for the NZD with the big news of the day being the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. After opening at around 0.7075 the NZD jumped through 0.7100 resistance to a high of 0.7110 following a more hawkish than expected RBNZ statement. The rally was short lived as the NZD ran into sellers above 0.7100 and was dragged down further by a weak euro later in the session to a 0.7055 intraday low. The NZD opens a little softer this morning at around 0.7050, trading lower overnight on the back of a softer euro.

Australian Dollar: AUD tracks euro lower
The AUD was content tracking the euro yesterday in a day with no major Australian economic data. Slipping under 0.7700 at around midday, the AUD drifted lower for the remainder of the session as stop-loss euro selling put pressure on the AUD taking the currency to a 0.7681 low. It was largely more of the same euro tracking for the AUD in the overnight sessions, with the AUD moving lower in New York trade to a 0.7655 session low. The AUD opens slightly stronger this morning at around 0.7665.

Major Currencies: USD broadly stronger
The USD initially slipped against the euro, after a survey showed mid- Atlantic factory activity slowed sharply in Sep. In choppy trade the euro edged up to 1.2225 from around 1.2214 before the data. However, it was still down about 0.5% from the previous session after breaking below a technical level of 1.2250 on the back of uncertainty over the outcome of Germany's election on Sunday: the possibility of a grand coalition between conservatives and socialists could stymie reforms. Other economic data appeared to have little impact on the USD with US CPI broadly in line with expectations and NY Fed manufacturing not as disastrous as some had expected. The euro opens this morning around 1.2220 and JPY opens around 110.67.

US district Fed surveys decline. The district Fed surveys were both weaker in early September: NY modestly so at 17.0, Philadelphia more so at just 2.2. The key detail conveyed essentially the same picture: a sharp decline in new orders and a steep jump in inflationary pressure, no doubt related to accelerating natural energy prices. The latter is a post Katrina effect; the former (softer orders) probably reflects the less robust manufacturing picture already apparent in the August ISM and industrial production data releases.

US CPI up 0.5% in Aug, core up 0.1%. The CPI headline jumped 0.5% in August due mainly to a 5.0% surge in energy (gasoline up 8.2% and home energy up 1.4%). Food prices were subdued (0.1%). The core rate grew just 0.1% for the fourth month running, held down by flat shelter (including a 1.6% fall in lodging away from home), a further 0.5% fall in new car prices, flat medical costs and a 0.1% fall in education and communication. A well above trend 1.0% jump in clothing prices was the only major upside surprise. This latest subdued core inflation result confirms the clear downtrend in underlying inflationary pressure since late last year - prior to Hurricane Katrina.

US business inventories fell 0.5% in July, dragged down sharply by a 1.8% fall in retailers' stocks, due to July's surge in auto sales. A weak start to Q3, suggesting inventories won't make a big contribution to quarterly GDP growth.

US initial jobless claims jumped 71k to 398k as many displaced Cajuns finally managed to register their loss of job; expect hundreds of thousand more new claims in coming weeks, and possible sharp upward revisions. 68k of this week's jump were attributed to Katrina.

UK retail sales flat in August. Very disappointing headline, including downward revisions to previous months. But the August decline was due to a rare 1.2% slump in food sales; non-food was up a healthy 0.8%. Hard to explain, but not quite the dire indicator of consumer health it first appears.

The Swiss National Bank left rates on hold, but hinted at an intention to resume tightening as the economic recovery firms.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
16 Sep NZ Q2 Economic Survey of Mfg 1.0% n/f
Aust Aug Merch Imports AUDbn 13.0 n/f
US Q2 Current Account USDbn -195.1 -191.5
Jul TIC Data USDbn 71.2 n/f
Sep UoM Cons Sent (Prelim) 89.1 84.0
Eur Aug CPI (F) %yr 2.1% a 2.1%
2005 Budget Update
17 Sep NZ General Election

Latest Research papers/Publication
• RBNZ Sep MPS Review (15 September)
• NZ Q2 Terms of Trade Review (12 September)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (12 September)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (12 September)
• RBNZ Sep MPS Preview (9 September)
• NZ Agribiz September 2005
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (5 September)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Thu 26 Oct
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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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