User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday September 16, 2005 - 11:19:43 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

$ Forecasting Futility

Key News
•The Bush administration is turning up the heat on Beijing to allow the Chinese yuan to rise against the dollar, reigniting an economic dispute that had appeared settled. (WSJ)
•China's economy has grown by an average of 9.5% a year over the past twenty years and the OECD says it won't slow down any time soon. (BBC)
•Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka said on Friday that mild deflation persists in Japan's economy, and further efforts by the government and central bank are needed to overcome falling prices. (Reuters)
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Second-Quarter Current Account. Consensus: -$192.4 Bln. Previous: -$191.5 Bln.
12p.m. Mid-Sept. Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Consensus: 84.0. Previous: 89.1.

“A crowd thinks in images, and the image itself immediately calls up a series of other images, having no logical connection with the first.”

Gustave Le Bon, The Crowd

FX Trading
A random thought on the futility and frustration of forecasting—a view that flows from hearing people say “this will happen,” or “this won’t happen.”

•German election
•US Consumer confidence
•Bank of Japan Zero Interest Rate Policy
•UK Inflation
•US Inflation
•Australian Housing
•China float
•US fiscal deficit
•US current account
•Crude oil
•G-7 meeting
•Fed meeting

Choose your poison or your rationalization—many times they are one and the same. When you stop to think about it, there are lots of things we think about while playing this currency game (above is a partial list of the potentialities). We probably shouldn’t waste our time thinking too much, because we can’t forecast future events—no matter how good we think we are. But we forge ahead each day speculating on future events. We then apply those forecasts to forecast to currency prices—forecasting to the second power. Does anyone else see this process as being just a bit odd?

If you believe you can forecast the future, you see nothing wrong. But for those of us that know we can’t, we see much futility playing out in front of us each day.

So where does that leave us?

Should we apply a pure technical approach? Maybe! It avoids picking and choosing what we think does matter. For in the end, it’s only price action that does. “Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market,” attributed to Richard Wyckoff, and a quote that rings in our head each day when we put fingers to keyboard. For in this report we play the forecasting game—with a limited degree of success and much flat out failure. (Editors note: our perceived value from doing this each day is not to be right, though we do our best to be right, but to help us do right when it comes to trading.)

If there is a point here, it is this: currencies are driven by the actions of real players acting on their perceived view. That view does not have to be based in reality. In fact, “instead of fundamentals [that which we attempt to forecast] determining exchange rates, exchange rates have found a way of influencing fundamentals,” Mr. George Soros tells us.

In other words, our actions influence the events we are trying to forecast. And we know many of our actions are less than rationale. Thus, another wrinkle added to the difficulty of forecasting. I think Mr. John Percival does the best single job in helping us understand this game when he says, “It all comes back to sentiment.” He adds four qualifiers: “know your risk, know your reasons, know your time frame, and know yourself.”

For the ebb and flow of sentiment is the driver of currency prices. If we can grasp that, it’s probably the best we can do.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105