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Friday September 16, 2005 - 12:10:54 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-09-05 ..... 1200 GMT

Euro @ 1.2246/49....Support at 1.2194 is strong
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2283 / 1.2309-27
S: 1.2253-39 / 1.2194
The Euro has retreated from its intra-day high near 1.2313, indicating only weak Euro-buying interest.

Still, it finds Support at the 1.2253-39 in the immediate context. Below that, yesterday's low near 1.2194 coincides with Trend Support coming up from the 1.1873 low on 08-July and the Daily Candles. The 1.2196-94 region is ALSO the statistically projected Max Low for today. So, cannot bet on a Support break today.

While the 1.2194 Support holds, the Euro may be ranged between 1.2194-2327. In case it breaks, the Euro may fall towards 1.2150-20 and then lower.


$-Yen @ 110.83/87....Resistance 110.95-111.05
--------------------------------------------
R: 110.95-111.04 / 111.20 / 111.50
S: 110.60-52-42 / 110.23-18 / 109.88
There's Trend Resistance on the Daily Candles and Triangle Resistance on the 4-hour Candles in the 110.95-111.04 region. Would not bet on them breaking on a Friday evening. But, in case the resistance IS broken, the Dollar would target 111.50 initially, and then higher. While the Resistance holds, the market could come down to 110.50 again.


Euro-Yen @ 135.77/82....Quiet between 135.50-136.20
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 136.05 / 136.22-49
S: 135.83-60 / 135.41-30 / 134.97
The Cross rose to only 136.05 during the day and has retreated from there (alongwith Euro-USD). Would think it may dip a bit more towards 135.50 and then be ranged between 135.50-136.20 for the rest of the day. IN CASE these intra-day range extremes are broken, the Cross may either rise towards 136.50 or fall towards 135.20-00, as the case may be.


$-Swiss @ 1.2662/67....Holding Long
--------------------------------------
R: 1.2653-65 / 1.2689-97 / 1.2715-36
S: 1.2630-15 / 1.2606-1.2585 / 1.2566-47
The rise in Dollar-Swiss in the last couple of hours is heartening. There's some Resistance available between 1.2670-97. Should this break, we may see a rise towards 1.2727, which could turn out to be a very bullish development.
Support for now between 1.2627 and 1.2598. It is also possible that the market might remain very quietly ranged between 1.2598-2670 through the greater part of the US session, before either rising further towards 1.2700 or falling towards 1.2565.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.2652, SL 1.2593, TP open


Cable @ 1.8100/05.....Ranged between 1.8035-1.8166
----------------------------------------------------
R: 1.8150 / 1.8180 / 1.8218
S: 1.8091-89 / 1.8057-51 / 1.8019-1.7993
The Cable has been falling since 1.8431 (11-Sep) and has again found Resistance at 1.8150 today. While it trades below 1.8150 now, there are chances of a fall towards 1.8038, to test yesterday's Low again. IN CASE 1.8038 breaks, a further fall to 1.7997 may take place. But, the chances of a break below 1.8038 are not too bright.

As such, the market may be ranged between 1.8038 and 1.8150




Aussie @ 0.7690/95...Retaining the sell order
---------------------------------------------
R: 0.7690-0.7714 / 0.7752 / 0.7786
S: 0.7678-63 / 0.7638-19 / 0.7604
The pair continues to trade below the resistance at 0.7714-20, but has been oscillating between a narrow range of 0.7707-0.7679 over the last few hours. Though the pair has not shown major signs of weakness, a rise above 0.7720 still looks doubtful. While it remains below the resistance there are chances of it testing 0.7640. A fall below which may target 0.7600 also.

In case it breaks above 0.7720 it may rise to 0.7750.

Order:
Sell AUD 30K at 0.7710, SL 0.7730, TP 0.7665.




Happy Trading!



 

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