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Friday September 4, 2015 - 10:57:26 GMT
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Update to Max McKegg's FX Trade of the Year - USDJOY: Gigantic sell-off may lie ahead

 

Max alerted us to his FX Trade of the Year and it has so far worked out as he suggested.See below for the uopdate to this trade

The Trade Advice (which You Alerted All GV’ers to) filled at 120.50 (initial Stop just above 121.00) is still “in play” … Now 119.35 (Stop can Now be lowered to 119.80)

USD/JPY – Gigantic Sell-off may lie ahead

The Dollar’s recovery from last week’s 116.50 “panic low” (and my Target incidentally) appears merely corrective (from an Elliott Wave perspective) retracing an exact 60% (at 121.75) before weakness resumed.

The short term (5 minute and Hourly) price action argues for a Bounce back toward resistance around the 120.50 level (120.85 max). This is likely to be “all she wrote”, with the Dollar then positioned for a strong sell-off back toward 116.50, initially.

The technical position would then turn really Bearish!  I draw your attention to the  Head and Shoulders Reversal formation which has been forming All Year (refer both Daily & Weekly Charts below), which upon a sustained break below 116.50 will establish a minimum downside objective of 107.70. Supporting this is the short term Fibonacci projection, wherein if the Dollar’s next sell-off (starting at 121.75) is 1.618 times its first (125.30 – 116.50), a decline toward 107.50 can be expected.

Furthermore, a good case can be made that the Dollar has completed a 5-Wave sequence from its 2011 low 75.60 to 125.30 (refer Weekly Chart below) and is now correcting this entire advance. A (minimum) Fibonacci 38.2% retracement would yield a sell-off toward 106.30 over the coming weeks.

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Request a trial for Max McKegg's Daily Forex Forecasts

 

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Max McKegg24 Rama Crescent, Khandallah, Wellington 6035, New Zealand, Tel. 64-4-479-098

Disclaimer: Max McKegg & Technical Research Ltd accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage that maybresult, directly or indirectly, from any forecast, comment or opinion, information or omission, whether negligent orbotherwise, within this report.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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