Sunday September 18, 2005 - 12:31:31 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 19th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 111.48 ... 111.78 ... 112.29 ... 112.60
Support....: 111.00 ... 110.66 ... 110.47 ... 110.14
We favor 111.46-51 capping and for losses to 110.47-66 initially and later to 109.62-90
Infact we saw a rally all the way to the 111.30-49 resistance and we feel this should cap for now (max 111.51). Most likely the day will be a bearish one. Thus, only on a break above 111.51 would we look for follow-through with the 111.78 area likely to provide temporary resistance but we feel such a break should see a move to 112.18-29 at least. Next resistance is at 112.60.
No break of 110.35-50 and a test of the 111.30-49 resistance. We feel this should have provided a peak and look for a bearish day with initial losses expected to the 110.47-66 area at least but eventually we will be looking for a retest of the 109.88 low and possibly 109.62. However, this move should probably be seen in early trading on Tuesday and we expect this to hold. Next support is at 109.38.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th September 2005
Price is moving slowly and does suggest a more complex correction in Wave (ii). At this point we do not know whether this will be a triangle, flat or expanded flat. A triangle would be implied on a loss of 110.35-50 but would suggest a low around 109.97. Any earlier move to 111.05 or to 111.32-49 and reversal would imply a flat or expanded flat. From the structure of the move from 110.14 we feel a flat is more likely.
19th September 2005
The move to 111.46 appears to confirm an expanded flat correction and thus we would expect a return to the 109.88 low with risk of a small overshoot to the 109.62 area. However, this will provide the low for Wave (ii) with strong bullish implications to 113.06.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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