Thursday April 29, 2004 - 18:37:56 GMT
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DOLLAR STUMBLES WITH BAD DATA
Overnight the Dollar's gains continued with fresh seven-week highs made against the JPY. The Japanese holiday saw few exporters sitting on the offer enabling USD/JPY to pierce the 200-day moving average. Expectations for a strong U.S. GDP number was also helping to keep the Dollar supported going into the GDP release.GDP was expected to be 5.0 and came in at 4.2. The Dollar initially held on to these poor numbers and then gave in and saw a move in Dollar/Jpy from highs of 111.00 and collapsed to 109.50 before getting back on its feet and rising to 110.20 just before N.Y. lunch. Euro blasted through key resistance at 1.1850/60 and 1.1890/00 and rose to sessions highs of 1.1975/80. After all the speculative talk of Dollar basing and the Euro,GBP and Aud selling off due to real money buying of dollars across the board against its major counterparts, traders are wondering whether they have moved a little to quickly getting on board. Tomorrow we get more data with the release of University of Michigan CC and Chicago Purchasing Management.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING Euro has broken key resistance at 1.1850/60 and 1.1900 along with 1.1930. It is also above all its 30 120 and 200 hr moving averages and trading at the top of the Bollinger Band at mid day. Support is seen at 1.1900 and 1.1860 with resistance at 1.1980 and 1.2000 in the short term. The RSI is very positive with a reading of 67.98.
GAIN AN EDGE We look to buy Euro on a dip back to 1.1895 with a stop below 1.1850 and a take profit of 1.1975.
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