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WEEK AHEAD: ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - LOW INFLATION ENCOURAGES FED & BOE TO WAIT AND SEE

Friday 09 October 2015

LOW INFLATION ENCOURAGES FED & BOE TO WAIT AND SEE

September readings to show low headline inflation in UK and US

UK labour market appears to be continuing to tighten

ZEW to provide further evidence that euro area economic activity has slowed

Inflation still very low for now. The coming week will see further evidence of very low current inflation. September headline CPI inflation in both the UK (Tue) and the US (Thu) will show the ongoing impact of low oil prices. In the US this is likely to push the annual inflation rate back into negative territory for the first time since April, while in the UK we forecast the rate to be 0% for the second successive month. In both cases, however, ‘core’ inflation is expected to be stable at higher levels. With the oil price already moving up in early October and the annual comparisons set to become less favourable, we expect headline inflation in both countries to start to move up before year end. However, it still seems likely to be below target, particularly in the UK, for some time yet.

Continued uncertainty over Fed policy. The current low level of inflation adds to the Fed’s monetary policy dilemma. The FOMC has indicated that they will not wait until inflation is back at target before raising interest rates. With inflation currently so low, however, it is easy to see why the FOMC may feel it can afford to hold steady, while awaiting more evidence on the strength of economic activity.  We expect the picture painted by next week’s data will be mixed. The September retail sales (Wed) should confirm the continued strength of consumer spending, led by auto sales. However, industrial production (Fri) and the Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys (Thu) will probably show manufacturing activity continued to be impeded by the uncertain international background and the strong dollar.

UK labour market and tightening. In the UK, despite current low inflation rates, signs of a tightening labour market and of a gradual acceleration in wage growth highlight the risk of a build-up in domestic inflationary pressures. Next week’s labour market data (Wed) will provide further evidence. We forecast a return to employment growth, along with a pickup in annual earnings growth to above 3%. The minutes of the October MPC meeting showed that any concerns members have about the labour market are having little immediate impact on monetary policy. Next month’s Inflation Report will need to take stock of accelerating cost pressure, and may see greater differences emerging between members’ views.

Further monetary stimulus seems likely in the euro area. In the euro area, the German ZEW survey (Tue) will provide one of the first updates on economic activity in October. The gauge of future conditions is expected to slide for the fourth successive month. As a survey of financial market analysts the ZEW is strongly influenced by market fluctuations. The recent decline in expectations, however, coincides with a weakening in other indicators. Euro area industrial production (Wed) for August could also be weak given the slide in German activity. With inflation also surprising on the downside, speeches by ECB Board members next week will be scrutinised for any indication of an increased willingness to extend its QE programme

Chinese data to remain a key focus for markets. While the stock market has greeted the resumption of trading after the Golden Week holiday with a rally, it is premature to conclude that the bear market is now over. A stabilisation will at least partly depend upon the market’s reading of domestic economic conditions. Of particular interest in the coming week will be September data on export growth (Tue). The rebalancing of the economy towards domestic demand and services means that export growth is less important than in the past.  Nevertheless, a stabilisation in export growth would still be a signal that activity is stabilising more broadly.  Money supply and loan data for September will provide a further update on the strength of domestic demand.

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This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office:25 Gresham Street,LondonEC2V 7HN. Registered inEnglandandWalesno. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House,120 George Street,EdinburghEH2 4LH. Registered inScotlandno. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound,EdinburghEH1 1YZ. Registered inScotlandno. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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