Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 00:39:39 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 21st September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2122 ... 1.2146 ... 1.2189 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.2099 ... 1.2056 ... 1.2041 ... 1.1987
We look for 1.2122-46 to cap and for losses to 1.2041-56 initially but the greater risk is to 1.1960
Limited upside seen yesterday and holding our 1.2189-1.2204 resistance. Frankly today we do not foresee to much opportunity on the upside which looks to be capped in the 1.2122-46 area. Thus only a clean break above 1.2146 would suggest a retest at 1.2189-1.2204 but would be expected to hold a second time. A stronger move higher requires a move above 1.2204 in which case we'd look for gains to extend towards the 1.2250 pivot resistance.
The pullback reached the maximum 1.2189-1.2204 resistance area and from there we have seen a good decline. This should stall initially in the 1.2099 area give or take 10 points and cause a pullback but while this holds below 1.2122-46 we will expect to see a drop to 1.2041-56 at least where a further pullback is expected. Only below 1.2040 would suggest a direct test of the 1.1960 target.
Elliott Wave Comments:
19th September 2005
There has been no change to our firming up of the wave count shown with Wave (i) at 1.2374 and Wave (ii) at 1.2457. However, with the deeper correction from 1.2193 we have had to assume that this provided the Wave (a) low and either Wave (b) ended at 1.2309 or more likely we shall see a second move higher to test the 50% retracement level at 1.2325. On this assumption we shall label the peak Wave (b) and then we feel the greater argument rests with a decline to 1.1897 where Wave (iii) is equal to 261.8% of Wave (i) and Wave (c) will be equal to 161.8% of Wave (a).
20th September 2005
No second attempt higher in Wave (b) and thus it confirms the downside and provides a Wave iii of Wave (c) target at 1.1960 where a brief Wave iv should be seen before the decline reaches the 1.1882-97 Wave (iii) target.
21st September 2005
The 1.2189 peak yesterday represented a 61.8% pullback in Wave b of Wave iii lower within Wave (c). There should be a brief pullback from 1.2041-56 but quickly thereafter a test of the Wave iii target at 1.1960. This should produce a pullback that should remain below 1.2064-1.2103 to complete Wave iv and allow Wave v of Wave (c) to reach the 1.1882-97 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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