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WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS 23 OCToBER 2105

NOT YELLEN FROM THE ROOFTOP

  • US FOMC to stand pat, but risk of further policy easing in Japan
  • UK and US GDP to slow in Q3, but underlying activity holding up relatively well
  • Eurozone inflation and US wage growth also in focus

Risk sentiment was supported last week by a smaller-than-expected easing in China’s Q3 GDP growth rate to 6.9% y/y and cuts in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio by the PBoC. China’s top officials in the coming week will hold its Fifth Plenum to agree the five-year economic plan for 2016-2020. In Europe, a strong signal from ECB President Draghi on the likelihood of further policy stimulus helped to weaken the euro. Mr Draghi emphasised that “the degree of monetary accommodation will be re-examined” at the next meeting in December and that “all the instruments available” will be considered, including the possibility of a cut in the deposit rate.

The US FOMC is almost certain to leave policy unchanged (Wed) as members wait for more evidence before deciding on whether to pull the trigger. There is no scheduled press conference at this meeting, but the statement will be perused closely for any hints about the potential for ‘liftoff’ in December. With another two employment reports to be released before then, we expect the statement to remain noncommital about the timing of the first rate rise. For now, we have maintained our central view that policy tightening starts in December, in line with the majority of economists.

The advance estimate of US Q3 GDP (Thu) will appear deceptively weak, In particular, the Bank of Japan policy meeting (Fri) appears to be a close call on whether further easing will take place. Recent data indicate that the economy may have contracted again in Q3. The September industrial production figures (Wed) could therefore be pivotal for policymakers. Thus far, there has been no explicit signal from Japanese officials of more impending policy stimulus. Sweden’s Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (both Wed) will also announce their policy decisions. Policy rates are expected to remain on hold at -0.35% and 2.75%, respectively.

There is a risk of policy easing by other central banks next week. In particular, the Bank of Japan policy meeting (Fri) appears to be a close call on  whether further easing will take place. Recent data indicate that the economy may have contracted again in Q3. The September industrial production figures (Wed) could therefore be pivotal for policymakers. Thus far, there has been no explicit signal from Japanese officials of more impending policy stimulus. Sweden’s Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (both Wed) will also announce their policy decisions. Policy rates are expected to remain on hold at -0.35% and 2.75%, respectively.

Eurozone inflation (Fri) is set to remain weak. with the flash estimate for October expected to be 0.0% y/y on the headline measure and 0.9% y/y for the core rate. The ECB has already signalled that it is preparing the ground to expand stimulus later in the year on account of increased concerns that it might miss its inflation target over the medium term. The German IFO business survey (Mon) may weaken, with sentiment possibly affected by the Volkswagen scandal.

The first estimate of UK Q3 GDP (Tue) is expected to show a slight weakening in the pace of growth from 0.7% q/q in Q2, but it is still forecast to remain relatively robust at 0.6% q/q in line with the Bank of England’s central staff forecast. Evidence from the latest PMI survey, in particular for services, may be overstating the degree of slowdown. Our own Lloyds Business Barometer survey indicates that activity has held up relatively well in Q3, as chart 2 shows and the October survey (Fri) will provide an early indication of activity for the start of Q4.

 

DIsclaimer

 

This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office:25 Gresham Street,LondonEC2V 7HN. Registered inEnglandandWalesno. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House,120 George Street,EdinburghEH2 4LH. Registered inScotlandno. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound,EdinburghEH1 1YZ. Registered inScotlandno. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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