Thursday September 22, 2005 - 01:24:42 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 22nd September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2278 ... 1.2309 ... 1.2344 ... 1.2401
Support....: 1.2235 ... 1.2190 ... 1.2168 ... 1.2132
We look for 1.2278-1.2309 to cap and for renewed losses
The break of the 1.2122-46 area caused a much larger pullback than expected. However, we feel this is close to completion and may have already done so. There is resistance at 1.2278 and then at 1.2309 and only above here would suggest a completely different picture and generate initial gains to 1.2344 which should provoke a pullback. Next resistance is at 1.2401 and 1.2457-73.
We have been surprised by the degree of pullback but watch the 1.2278-1.2309 resistance which we feel will remain intact. From here a move back below the 1.2235 pivotal area would imply a move back to 1.2168 at least and probably generate deeper losses back to 1.2099-1.2109. This would be expected to hold on the day. Next support is then found at 1.2027-46.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2005
With the stronger than expected pullback we have had to review the wave structure and see two potential scenarios:
(1) That the 1.2099 low marked Wave -i- of Wave (c) and thus we remain with a target at 1.1960 and then 1.1897 being Wave (iii) equal to 261.8% of Wave (i). This would imply a Wave -iii- around 1.1960-78 followed by a Wave -iv- correction before the decline to 1.1897.
(2) That in fact the 1.2193 low marked the end of Wave (iii) with 1.2309 as Wave (iv) and thus we are seeing a decline in Wave (v) that would have a target in the 1.2007-1.2046 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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