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Thursday September 22, 2005 - 11:22:29 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Stocks leading the dollar...

Key News
•Key reports due today (Global-View):
23:50 GMT- JPN- July Tertiary Activity Index
23:50 GMT- EU- July Ind Ord
06:15 GMT- CH- Aug Trade
10:00 GMT- UK- Sep CBI Ind Trends
11:00 GMT- CDA- Aug CPI
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
14:00 GMT- US- Aug Leading Indicators: vs. +0.1% in July, see -0.3%

Quotable
“With the real universe of action and unceasing change, with the economic system which cannot be rigid, neither neutrality of money nor stability of its purchasing power are compatible. A world of the kind which the necessary requirements of neutral and stable money presuppose would be a world without action…Money is an element of action and consequently of change. Changes in the money relation, i.e. in the relation of the demand for and the supply of money, affect the exchange ratio between money on the one hand and the vendible commodities on the other hand. These changes do not affect at the same time and to the same extent the prices of the various commodities and services. They consequently affect the wealth of the various members of society in a different way.”

Ludwig von Mises


FX Trading
It seems the Fed sees inflation risk and long-bond players see recession risk. The Fed appears concerned high energy prices and fiscal largesse will feed into consumer goods inflation. The bond market appears concerned higher short-term interest rates and higher energy prices will crater the consumer, and thus the consumers’ demand for goods will fall, tampering the impact of rising commodities prices. Who knows more: Mr. Greenspan or Mr. Conundrum?

One more time with the help of Mr. George Soros:

“What gave me the courage to hold on to my currency positions was the pronounced weakness in the stock market [US]. The strength of the dollar depends on the strength of the economy. A decline in stock prices can have a considerable influence on the spending decisions of consumers and those in business. Moreover, if there is going to be a recession, it will be brought on by the decline in collateral values, and the stock market is one of the most important repositories of collateral.”

Chart: Gold, S&P 500, Dollar Index Weekly

If we had to make a comment on this chart it would be: Besides the obvious inverse relationship between gold and the dollar, it seems the stock market is leading the dollar; that would validate the view Mr. Soros’ shared with us above.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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