Friday September 23, 2005 - 00:22:59 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 23rd September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2182 ... 1.2201 ... 1.2222 ... 1.2268
Support....: 1.2115 ... 1.2104 ... 1.2065 ... 1.2046
While 1.2180-85 caps we remain bearish for 1.2046-65 at least and possibly 1.2008
Price held below resistance at 1.2278 and suggests the correction higher is complete. To generate any strength today we shall require a break above the 1.2180-85 Fibonacci & pivot resistance and if seen we would then expect a thorough test of the 1.2215-32 resistance area. Take care since only above this higher range would provoke a retest of the 1.2268 high and probably then to 1.2309 and 1.2344.
The cap below 1.2278 and sharp decline does provide a more bearish backdrop and we feel that further losses should be seen today. For this we would prefer to see 1.2180-85 to cap and then resumption of the move lower. However, if 1.2185 is breached then we should consider the 1.2215-32 area. Confirmation of losses will come on a break below 1.2115-30 and once seen would imply a move to 1.2065 minimum. At this point we need take some care as this could support - but there are also potential targets at 1.2046 and 1.2007.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2005
With the stronger than expected pullback we have had to review the wave structure and see two potential scenarios:
(1) That the 1.2099 low marked Wave -i- of Wave (c) and thus we remain with a target at 1.1960 and then 1.1897 being Wave (iii) equal to 261.8% of Wave (i). This would imply a Wave -iii- around 1.1960-78 followed by a Wave -iv- correction before the decline to 1.1897.
(2) That in fact the 1.2193 low marked the end of Wave (iii) with 1.2309 as Wave (iv) and thus we are seeing a decline in Wave (v) that would have a target in the 1.2007-1.2046 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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