Sunday September 25, 2005 - 07:36:23 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 26th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2947 ... 1.2970 ... 1.2990 ... 1.3024
Support....: 1.2866 ... 1.2843 ... 1.2808 ... 1.2775
Slightly mixed on levels but look for 1.2866 to support and for gains to 1.2770-90
Price remained above 1.2743-49 on Friday and the rally from there has moved through the 1.2883-1.2902 resistance. This should imply follow-through to 1.2947 at least and we suspect a peak in the 1.2970-90 area. For this to occur we should expect the 1.2866 support to remain intact. However, on reaching the 1.2970-90 area we look for a larger pullback. Although not expected, the next resistance is found at 1.3024 and then 1.3058-80.
Little downside seen on Friday but we feel we are close to a potential reversal but we need be patient for a little while longer. We suspect that early trading may well see a dip down to the 1.2866 area but should hold. However, later in the day we shall look for a good selling opportunity in the 1.2970-90 area (stops above 1.3024) from where we anticipate a stronger reaction lower.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2005
The pullback yesterday means we need to re-assess the underlying wave structure and we see two that we prefer:
(1) That 1.2823 actually represented Wave i of Wave -c- and thus we can expect a move up to 1.2883 at least and possibly as high as 1.2970 where Wave iii will be equal to 138.2% of Wave i. This should be followed by a Wave iv correction and then follow-through in Wave v. We shall need to review potential targets as the structure develops.
(2) That the 1.2694 high actually represented the Wave -iii- high with 1.2597 being Wave -iv- and thus we are seeing a rally in Wave -v- in which 1.2823 was Wave a and this pullback is Wave b. The potential target for Wave -v- is at 1.2880 minimum (61.8% projection) and possibly as high as 1.2947 (76.4% projection).
26th September 2005
We have seen the expected rally and this has even broken above the 1.2883-1.2902 initial target. It has confused the wave structure a little but we can now use the potential targets above as possible stalling points. The closest is at 1.2947 but we feel a move trhough to 1.2970-90 is more likely but should provide an end to the rally from 1.2236.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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