Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 00:32:45 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 27th September 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2912 ... 1.2927 ... 1.2960 ... 1.2990
Support....: 1.2867 ... 1.2842 ... 1.2823 ... 1.2798
Cautiously, while 1.2842-67 supports there is still a risk of a move to the 1.2990 area
Price reached mid-way between our minimum 1.2947 target and the 1.2970-90 area. It may well be that this formed a high but we do see support between 1.2842-67 and while this holds there is still chance that we could see one last marginal high in the 1.2970-90 area. We prefer a scenario calling for this to cap. Any unexpected break above 1.2990 would then see the 1.3024 resistance and we feel more likely to 1.3058-80.
Price stalled just short of the 1.2970-90 resistance and we are left wondering whether this formed the top. However, before getting too bearish we would prefer to see the 1.2842 level broken and if seen would suggest further losses to 1.2773 at least which should hold on first test. Below there support comes in at 1.2742 and more strongly around 1.2683-93.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2005
The pullback yesterday means we need to re-assess the underlying wave structure and we see two that we prefer:
(1) That 1.2823 actually represented Wave i of Wave -c- and thus we can expect a move up to 1.2883 at least and possibly as high as 1.2970 where Wave iii will be equal to 138.2% of Wave i. This should be followed by a Wave iv correction and then follow-through in Wave v. We shall need to review potential targets as the structure develops.
(2) That the 1.2694 high actually represented the Wave -iii- high with 1.2597 being Wave -iv- and thus we are seeing a rally in Wave -v- in which 1.2823 was Wave a and this pullback is Wave b. The potential target for Wave -v- is at 1.2880 minimum (61.8% projection) and possibly as high as 1.2947 (76.4% projection).
26th September 2005
We have seen the expected rally and this has even broken above the 1.2883-1.2902 initial target. It has confused the wave structure a little but we can now use the potential targets above as possible stalling points. The closest is at 1.2947 but we feel a move trhough to 1.2970-90 is more likely but should provide an end to the rally from 1.2236.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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