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Dovish Fed At Lift-Off

John M. Bland


Fed Funds To Rise 25bp

With a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds rate already a given on Wednesday, the focus of trade after that announcement was on the Fed policy statement and Chair Yellen's press conference. Financial markets are always looking ahead and were already looking to the next policy move before the ink had dried on the policy statement on Wednesday. On balance, the markets judged the policy statement to be dovish. Some analysts did a keyword analysis on the statement. They found the word "Gradual" used twice. They also noted the Fed will be focusing on "actual Inflation" as opposed to PROJECTED inflation. This is said to be a victory for the doves who are in no rush to raise rates. This implies the Fed will not start to tighten further until prices actually rise. Lastly the Fed indicated that it would continue to reinvest bonds proceeds until well into the normalization process.


Market Developments
I had warned about the risk of extreme market volatility last week on the Fed policy announcement on Wednesday and was not disappointed. That volatility stemmed in part from the Short EURUSD trade being very crowded. Another factor seemed to be patches of illiquidity that might be the product of recent regulations on large institutions limiting their participation in the markets. We are moving now into the yearend holiday period which typically results in reduced activity until after the start of the new year.

Weekly Calendar
The upcoming week will be active for market-moving announcements before the Christmas Holiday period.

High Impact News Items (GMT)
21-Dec Monday
00:00 No Major Data
22-Dec Tuesday
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Dec Wednesday
00:00 JP- Holiday
09:30 GB- GDP
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Personal Income
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
24-Dec Thursday
00:00 Many Holidays
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JA- CPI
25-Dec Friday
00:00 Holiday

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



John M. Bland
co-founder
www.global-view.com

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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