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Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 10:46:47 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD steady above 1.2000 – waiting for durable orders.
• BoJ hawk broaches subject of monetary tightening.
• UK GDP disappoints with more back-revisions.
• UK CBI retail survey, Swiss KoF indicator, US
durables feature today.

Market Outlook

Not much going on in EUR-USD overnight, with the market still a little cautious about proceeding below 1.2000. US durable orders will be the big test today, having shown some weakness last month. 1.1950-80 is key on the downside ahead of 1.1866, while 1.2080-1.2100 is resistance. The overall bias is still to the downside.

The JPY received some transient support from comments by BoJ hawk Suda. He said the BoJ were possibly getting nearer the time when they could abandon their super-loose quantitative easing policy (current account deposit targeting) and said that as long as certain conditions were met (i.e. a sustained rise in core CPI), this could happen by the end of the current fiscal year (March 31 2006). He also went on to say that the BoJ could then swiftly move to adopting a low rate policy. Speculation about a change in stance in Japan will likely feature strongly in the next 6 months or so, but there will need to be solid evidence of core CPI picking up and not all BoJ members will necessarily agree on a rapid move to actually raising interest rates.

In the UK, the volatile current account deficit was lower than expected, although the final estimate of Q2 GDP was disappointing. The +0.5% q/q growth rate was unchanged from the previous estimate, but the y/y rate was revised down to +1.5% from +1.8%, reflecting a softer q/q growth profile from Q3 2004-Q1 2005. The new growth rates for this period are as follows – the bracketed numbers being the estimates at the time of the last Q2 GDP update on August 26. Q304 +0.3% (+0.4%), Q404 +0.5% (+0.6%), Q105 +0.3% (+0.4%). A similar controversy followed the final Q1 data in late June, which also included downward back revisions and was a key factor in prompting the MPC to reassess the growth profile. This is perhaps not as dramatic but will be clearly supportive of the dovish majority on the MPC.

Day Ahead
UK – the latest CBI survey of retail sales is also due and on the basis of other anecdotal evidence from retailers there is unlikely to be much improvement from the miserable showings seen in recent months.

Switzerland – the SNB has tried to keep a lid on market rate expectations, so it may take a strong KoF indicator today to boost the CHF. The KoF trend has clearly changed over recent months and is now pointing to improving economic conditions in Switzerland. Key levels on EUR-CHF come in at 1.5545 and 1.5590. Below the former would suggest a pullback after the rise seen since the beginning of September.

US – durable orders data showed signs of faltering last month, although such is the volatile nature of this series the market will want to see this being repeated before showing concern about a possible slowing demand. The overall uptrend in orders remains intact for now.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

AU RBA’s MacFarlane on global econ 05.00
CH KOF indicator (Sep) 05.30 0.69
ZA CPI (Aug) y/y 05.30 +4.0%
ZA CPIX (Aug) y/y 05.30 +4.9%
GB CBI retail trades survey (Sep) 06.00 -18 last
US Durable orders (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.8%
US Durables ex-transport (Aug) m/m 08.30 +1.0%
NZ GDP (Q2) q/q 18.45 +0.7%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Sep 25) -22 -23 last
JP Small business confidence (Sep) 50.4 48.8
DE Consumer confidence (Sep) +3.1 +3.4
FR Ind outlook (Sep) -14 -24
FR Business climate indicator (Sep) 100 100
SE Consumer confidence (Sep) 13.2 12.0
IT Business confidence (Sep) 89.5 87.0
GB GDP (Q2, final) q/q +0.5% +0.5%
GB Current account (Q2) -£3.1bn -£4.7bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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