Saturday December 26, 2015 - 11:20:09 GMT
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Too Many USD Bulls?
John M. Bland
USD Sentiment Bullish For 2016
Many of the analyses I am seeing for 2016 are for a higher USD in the new year as it appears that short-term interest rate spreads in the first half of the year are likely to widen further in favor of the U.S. It would be very hard to make the argument that this is not likely to happen based on what we know now so I will not. My only concern about this scenario may be that too many people are feeling the same way and we all know that when everyone in a market has a similar opinion that something else happens. Nevertheless, odds are that most will start off the new year with a positive USD bias. We will see how this plays out subsequently.
The latest week surprised many traders with EUR demand developing as many covered their EURUSD shorts before year-end. The latter part of the week ahead might see some EURUSD selling as USD bulls move to pre-position themselves into the start of 2016. I would not be getting in their way in the early days of the new year
The upcoming week will not see a lot of market-moving announcements before year-end.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
00:00 CA/UK- Holiday
15:00 US- CB Confidence
15:30 US- EIA Crude
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Chicago PMI
00:00 New Years day
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland
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