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Monday January 4, 2016 - 13:02:26 GMT
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WEEK AHEAD: ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS

Monday 4 January 2016

US EMPLOYMENT DATA AND EURO AREA FLASH CPI IN FOCUS

     US labour market report and euro area flash CPI start the year off in earnest

     Services PMI is the main focus in the UK

     The divergent monetary policy outlook remains a key focus

US labour market statistics (Fri) will be the focus in the first week of the New Year. We are looking for nonfarm payrolls to rise by around 200k in December, in line with the market consensus, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.0%. The annual growth rate of average hourly earnings is also forecast to increase to 2.8% from 2.3%. The labour force participation rate has fallen in recent years and is currently at 62.5%, levels last seen in the 1970s. Some of the decline is likely to be cyclical and a key question is whether it picks up in the context of a sustained increase in wage growth. A rise in the participation rate would support the Federal Reserve’s aim to raise interest rates at a ‘gradual’ pace. According to Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, a gradual pace would be consistent with an increase in the policy rate every other meeting, namely four quarter-point increases this year to an upper bound of 1.5% which also tallies with the latest ‘dot plot’ of FOMC members. Markets, however, are pricing in only two further quarter-point hikes in the policy rate this year to 1%. How this gap in expectations of the pace of policy tightening between FOMC members and the markets unfolds will be a key focus for 2016.

Euro area CPI (Tue) to rise on energy price base effects. We look for the flash estimate of euro area CPI inflation to rise to 0.4%y/y in December from 0.2%y/y. This is expected to be driven primarily by the energy price base effect, though the ‘core’ rate, excluding food and energy could also edge up to 1.0%y/y from 0.9%y/y. The base effect reflects the impact of the sharp decline in energy prices in the same month a year earlier. As usual, the euro area flash CPI release will be preceded by preliminary German inflation figures (Mon) which are forecast to show a rise to 0.4%y/y from 0.3%y/y on the EU harmonised measure. More broadly, we expect the energy price base effect to continue to drive euro area headline CPI inflation higher over the course of 2016. As such, the evolution of core inflation will be closely examined as an indicator of underlying price pressures and will therefore have important implications for the ECB policy outlook.

UK PMI surveys (Mon-Wed) will provide a guide to activity at the end of Q4. The Office for National Statistics last month revised down UK GDP growth rates for Q2 and Q3, meaning that the economy has not been growing as strongly as previously thought. The official figures suggest that growth is now estimated to have been only 0.4%q/q in Q3, with domestic demand remaining the key driver of overall activity. Looking to Q4, we expect the manufacturing PMI to edge higher to 53.2 in December from 52.7, pointing to modest recovery in activity in the sector after the contraction in Q3. The services PMI is forecast to move down slightly to 55.5 from 55.9, though it would still be consistent with some improvement in overall GDP growth in Q4 to around 0.6%q/q. Nevertheless, with headline CPI inflation at only 0.1%y/y and forecast to rise only gradually in the months ahead, the MPC is expected to delay the start of policy tightening until the second half of the year.

The US ADP employment (Wed) and ISM (Mon/Wed) reports will provide early indications of Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls and of overall economic activity in Q4. Current indications suggest that the US economy probably expanded by around 2% (annualised) in Q4, which would be a similar pace to Q3. US external trade and FOMC minutes (both Wed) are also due. UK mortgage approvals/consumer credit (Mon) and external trade (Fri) figures will receive some attention. Other key releases include China Caixin services PMI (Wed) and German factory orders (Thu) and industrial production (Fri)

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 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office:25 Gresham Street,LondonEC2V 7HN. Registered inEnglandandWalesno. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House,120 George Street,EdinburghEH2 4LH. Registered inScotlandno. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound,EdinburghEH1 1YZ. Registered inScotlandno. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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