Tuesday June 22, 2004 - 01:12:31 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Forecast for US Dollar vs Japanese Yen 22nd June 2004Price 108.60
Support:... 108.95 ... 109.25 ... 109.60 ... 109.90
Resistance: 108.40 ... 108.15 ... 107.80 ... 107.20
Remaining above 108.15 with risk to 109.20-25 and possibly 109.60
The recovery from 108.22 has been encouraging but no break of key resistance has yet been seen to confirm reversal. For direct gains we need to see 108.40 support and for a move above 109.95 and then 109.20-25. Next resistance is at 109.60 which could hold on first test. Further resistance is found at 109.90-110.25.
With a rally from the 108.15-30 support area we will only reverse our bullish stance should support at 108.15 break and also 107.80. Thus only below 107.80 would threaten stronger losses down to 107.20 initially. Further support is seen at 106.10.
Elliott Wave Comments:
Although we are disappointed that our ideal target for this retracement at 109.90 was breached we have seen good relationships in the new count shown below which identifies the 108.70-00 area as a good stalling point for Wave [iv]. This represents a 61.8% retracement of the Wave [iii] rally and while deep does not break the pattern. Given that 109.02 did indeed provide the low for Wave [iv] this would imply a quick move back to 113.30 (watch the prior broken uptrend line now at 112.10 and rising) under Elliott guidelines as the intervening Wave B. Following a correction from there look for Wave [v] to rally to 116.10 minimum and probably 117.75.
We have made a slight amendment to the wave structure calling the decline from 111.96 to 108.67 as a second Wave (A) with the peak at 111.46 being Wave (B). Wave equality of Wave (A) would provide a target for Wave (C) at 108.15. However, we should also point out the Wave [b] low (of Wave [iii]) at 108.30 which should normally provide support. Clearly with an important cycle low due around this point of time we feel the 108.15-30 area should hold to complete Wave [iv] and allow Wave [v] to begin.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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