User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday October 2, 2005 - 10:25:17 GMT
BHF-Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing 30 September 2005

• Fed wants to safeguard price stability, signals continuation of interest rate hikes
• Foreigners become net sellers of Japanese securities
• ECB will increase vigilance further – interest rate hikes are coming closer

Dollar follows Fed’s interest rate policy signals

The dollar remained strong, but it did not gain much more ground. During this week EUR-USD cautiously advanced below the USD1.20 mark, only to retreat to familiar terrain. In the end, the euro dithered at just over USD1.20. The dollar strengthened a little more against the yen: USDJPY moved to over JPY113. However, the July high of 113.73 remained out of reach for now.

Again, monetary policy was the biggest driver behind the dollar strength. Fed representatives confirmed on several occasions that the economy is robust and that the negative Katrina-effect will be temporary. The various speakers underlined the higher inflation risks and the need to combat the rise of inflation expectations. The development of the March eurodollar futures contract shows that the markets have lost all hope of Katrina-induced breaks in the Fed’s tightening policy. Similar to the beginning of August, the contract has priced in fed funds rate hikes between 50 and 75 basis points.

After dropping somewhat at the beginning of the week, energy prices (especially for natural gas and gasoline) started to rise strongly again by mid-week. This is because oil production and refining activities are slow to recover after taking a double whammy from Katrina and Rita. The reasoning used to be that higher energy prices are mainly a problem for economic growth and therefore an argument for lower interest rates and against the dollar. But now that the Fed has so explicitly emphasized price stability, the view might have changed.

The latest US economic indicators have been mixed. While consumer confidence plummeted in September according to the Conference Board survey, durable goods orders perked up noticeably. Admittedly, the latter are figures for August, but they do show how robust the US economy was before the hurricanes struck. More up to date are the initial jobless claims. The September figure is a lot higher than those in the previous months, but the increase is solely due to Katrina. The jobless claims do not indicate a general deterioration in the labour market. We expect the September labour market report, due next Friday, to confirm this impression.

Japan: strong fundamentals, weak currency
What appears strange is the weakness of the Japanese currency. The current economic indicators show that Japanese growth is more and more fuelled by domestic demand. And the stock market is going from strength to strength. This month the Nikkei has risen by almost 9%; last week alone it gained 2.6%. Because of the bullish stock market and the budding discussion about ending the zero interest rate policy within the Bank of Japan, the 10-year bond yield rose by 12 points to almost 1.50%.

Given the favourable economic situation in Japan, the yen should really be strong. But in fact USD-JPY is in the upper fifth of its 2-year range. However, foreign inflows into the Japanese markets have turned around last week (up until 24 September). Apparently, foreigners have started selling equities, and above all bonds. It is possiEconomics ble that the higher, and rising US interest rate level has more of a pull in the long term than the Japanese fundamentals.

ECB: how long will words suffice?
Next Thursday the ECB Council is due to meet. The central bank now has to navigate choppy waters: due to the energy price increases, the inflation rate in the euro area has risen to 2.5% and it is unlikely to fall in the coming months, unless energy prices drop. Although the inflation rate excluding energy and fresh food, which reflects the underlying domestic price trend, is still moderate at just under 1.5%, the relatively strong deviation from the stability norm nevertheless poses a risk: one, because of the possible passing on of energy costs; two, with respect to inflation expectations.

The second warning signal for the ECB is coming from the money supply. M3 growth has accelerated to more than 8% over the past months, which is far above the central bank’s reference value. The low long-term bond yields explain this development quite well. But it is uncertain whether the excess liquidity will promptly disappear through portfolio shifts once economic growth takes hold.

In this situation, the ECB will discuss whether the time for a normalization of money market rates is drawing closer. The signs for stronger growth in the second half of the year are good at the moment, e.g. the sustained recovery of business climate in the euro area. However, the ECB will want to see the “hard indicators” confirm this trend before it takes any interest rate steps. But it will not mince its words at the upcoming meeting.

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Economics Department
+49 69 718-3642
[email protected]
Foreign Exchange Trading
[email protected]
Jörg Isselmann
+49 69 718-2695
Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken
+49 69 718-2688

This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.
© 2005 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft
All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105